This Is NOT A 1970s-Style Commodity Supercycle
The current inflation scare has two parts:
1. Strait of Hormuz risk
This is a supply shock. If Hormuz opens and shipping normalizes, the panic premium in crude, LNG, freight and insurance can cool quickly.
Hormuz handles nearly 20% of global oil flows, so any disruption creates fear. But fear premium is not the same as a structural supercycle.
2. AI infrastructure demand
This is the structural part.
AI data centres need:
power,
copper,
transformers,
cables,
cooling,
gas backup,
grid expansion.
That demand will not disappear even if oil cools.
So this is not like the 1970s, where oil shock + wage-price spiral + weak central banks created a broad inflation regime.
Today looks more like:
Temporary energy shock + structural power infrastructure boom.
Crude may be tactical.
Copper, grid, transformers, cables and power equipment may be structural.
The real bull market may not be in “all commodities”.
It may be in companies enabling electricity, grids and AI infrastructure.