MERAJ Nezami

Garrett Jin, representative of '1011 Insider Whale,' commented on the market dynamics amid the Middle East conflict, noting that the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively 'blocked' for three months. According to Odaily, Jin stated that the market has become desensitized to this geopolitical risk, with AI narratives altering traditional risk pricing logic. AI is significantly reducing market sensitivity to oil prices and geopolitical shocks. Since ceasefire signals emerged, U.S. stocks and energy impacts have decoupled, with chip and tech stocks rising to offset energy sector effects, leading to a gradual disregard for Hormuz risks. However, Jin cautioned that the AI sector faces short-term valuation and crowded trading risks, which could lead to a correction.
In the energy market, Jin's previous assessment that Hormuz risks were not fully priced was validated, as oil prices rose due to supply shock expectations but peaked and retreated following strategic reserve releases and U.S. intervention as the 'last supplier.' He believes the current risk-reward ratio for oil prices is no longer attractive.
On the macro and equity market front, U.S. household stock holdings have reached approximately 47% of financial assets, surpassing levels seen during the internet bubble, which could reverse policy constraints during market downturns. The VIX volatility index has triggered different policy shift thresholds near 30 and 50, reflecting 'risk-off driven policy' characteristics.
In the gold market, recent gold price corrections are attributed to long-term structural demand changes rather than the fading of war premiums. Since 2022, global central banks have consistently purchased gold at an annual rate of around 1,000 tons, primarily to hedge against de-dollarization and sanction risks. Jin defines gold as the 'ultimate exit tool outside the dollar system,' rather than merely a safe-haven asset.
In the crypto market, a liquidity turning point occurred last October, with funds increasingly flowing into AI assets, causing a temporary drain in the crypto market. Jin believes the market remains in a cyclical bear phase, with rebounds not equating to the start of a new bull market. The market awaits the restart of new cycle liquidity. The AI era is becoming a new capital-dominant narrative, offering structural opportunities despite bubbles, which Jin describes as a 'rare window period for ordinary investors,' but emphasizes the importance of adhering to market cycle discipline.
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Ferrari CEO Benedetto Vigna has addressed the criticism surrounding the company's first electric vehicle, the Ferrari Luce, which has a price tag of 550,000 euros (approximately $638,660). According to Jin10, despite the negative feedback on its design, the new car has started receiving orders from both new and existing customers. This week, the luxury car manufacturer fully unveiled the Luce, a four-door, five-seat electric vehicle designed by former Apple Chief Product Designer Jony Ive. The design marks a departure from Ferrari's traditional image, leading to comparisons with other electric vehicles on the market, mostly unfavorable. As a result, Ferrari's stock price has declined. Vigna emphasized that the success of the Luce will ultimately depend on Ferrari's customer base, who are accustomed to the company's strategy of limited production, which keeps supply below market demand. "Look at the customers writing to us and those placing orders," Vigna stated, noting that both long-time and new customers are showing interest. He also defended the high expected price of the Luce, stating, "Innovation comes at a cost."

The Bank of Japan announced on Wednesday that it recorded an unprecedented loss on its holdings of Japanese government bonds for the previous fiscal year, highlighting the impact of shifting to higher interest rates on its portfolio valuation. According to Jin10, the unrealized loss on its Japanese government bond holdings amounted to 45.441 trillion yen (approximately $285.26 billion) for the fiscal year ending in March, surpassing the previous year's loss of 28.625 trillion yen and marking the largest loss since comparable data became available. Bank of Japan officials have consistently maintained that such losses do not influence monetary policy decisions, as the bank intends to hold these bonds until maturity, meaning these paper losses will not be realized. Since exiting the negative interest rate policy in 2024, the Bank of Japan has been gradually tightening monetary policy, leading to an increase in Japanese government bond yields. This upward trend has recently accelerated due to market concerns that the Bank of Japan may be lagging in its fight against inflation, as Middle East conflicts drive up oil prices. If this situation persists, the paper losses on its Japanese government bonds could deepen. Another factor contributing to the rise in Japanese government bond yields is the government's fiscal stimulus plan, which has heightened market concerns about Japan's debt burden.