📰 *Bitcoin’s Fed cut trade flips as bond market turns into the risk*

Bloomberg reported on May 22 that bond traders are fully pricing in a Fed interest rate hike by year-end, with interest rate swaps implying the Fed's benchmark rate at least 25 basis points higher by the end of 2026. The same day, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed should remove its easing bias and called rate cut talk “crazy” as inflation held above target and the labor market stayed stable. Bitcoin lost the $76,000 footing on May 22, a move tied to US-Iran uncertainty and the repricing of Fed rate expectations. That price action captures only part of the macro repricing underway, as the rate-cut tailwind that supported risk assets through much of early 2026 has become a rate-hike risk, and the bond market has taken over the job of setting financial conditions before the Fed makes a formal move. Kevin Warsh took the oath as Fed chair on May 22, with the FOMC selecting him unanimously. A five-step timeline traces how Bitcoin's macro backdrop moved from rate-cut tailwind to 58% hike probability on May 22, with the 10-year yield hitting 4.69%. Nomura dropped its 2026 Fed rate cut forecast on persistent inflation and geopolitical risks, while CME FedWatch pricing showed roughly a 58% chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike by the end of the year. Long-term Treasury yields had already been climbing before bond traders fully priced a hike, with the 30-year yield reaching 5.201%, its highest since 2007, while the 10-year yield hit 4.69%, its highest since J

📡 المصدر: CryptoSlate

🕒 2026-05-24 14:14

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