Bitcoin update, overall outlook remains unchanged from yesterday.
The impulsive structure is still intact, and in my view the larger sell-off likely hasn’t happened yet. From here, traders need to decide whether to hedge exposure around the $78.5K–81K resistance zone or gradually reduce spot positions.
The bearish outlook would only be invalidated by a confirmed break above $82.8K. If that level is reclaimed, we’d need to shift toward a more bullish deviation scenario. Until then, the probability of a deeper correction remains high.
My main expectation is still a move toward the $54K–48K range, where Bitcoin could finally form a broader bottom and complete the larger corrective structure.
Ideally, price prints another clean three-wave rally before the next leg down. Wave 2 recoveries are often sharp and convincing enough to make the market believe a bullish reversal is underway before the trend rolls over again.
If we get a more defined three-wave push higher, downside targets can be mapped out with greater precision. For now, the broader resistance zone between $78.5K and $81K remains the key area to monitor.
Another important point: the final decline toward the $55K region should likely unfold impulsively in a five-wave structure. That said, corrective Wave 5 moves are usually messy, volatile, and difficult to count accurately.
Because of that, it’s better not to obsess over every small wave near the end of the move. The bigger focus should remain on the broader downside target zone between roughly $54.6K and $48K.
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