Bitcoin continues to follow a repeating market structure.
The chart shows three major rounded-top formations. After the first two, the price corrected by approximately 32–36 percent, and the current movement fits into the same structure.
Losing the 50-day MA was a critical trigger
Every major breakdown began when price fell below the 50-day moving average (around 104k).
Before the recent strong drop, price was rejected from the 50 MA again, which is clearly shown on the chart.
Price is now entering an important retest zone
The current bounce is pushing back into a previous support–resistance block around 102–103k.
This zone determines whether the move is just a weak relief bounce or actual strength is returning to the market.
– If price fails here, the downtrend can continue.
– If price reclaims the 103–106k area, it would be the first sign of a potential recovery.
Bullish scenario:
– Price reclaims 103k, then 106k, then 111k
– Holds above the 50-day MA
– Only then can a sustained trend reversal begin
Bearish scenario:
– Rejection in the current retest zone
– Price revisits the lower green areas at 85k, 80k, and 78k
– These remain the next major liquidity levels