Everyone is waiting for the next Bitcoin bounce, but when I look at the weekly chart, I see something very different. BTC is currently sitting on a major support zone around 58k–62k USD, and this area is now under serious pressure. In the past, this zone acted as an important reaction area, but the way price is coming into it now does not look healthy to me. This does not look like a strong market retesting support with momentum. It looks more like a tired market trying to hold one of the last key levels before a larger move lower becomes possible.

Right now, I see two main scenarios. Scenario 1, to which I give around 25% probability, is a fast breakdown. In this case, Bitcoin loses the current support zone, fails to recover, and starts moving directly toward my main buy zone between 35k–48k USD. If this support breaks cleanly, I do not see a strong reason to expect an immediate miracle recovery. There may be small reactions on the way down, but structurally the chart would open the door to much lower prices. For me, the real opportunity is not here. The real opportunity would be lower.

Scenario 2, to which I give around 75% probability, is a bounce first and pain later. This is my main scenario at the moment. BTC may still defend the current zone for a while, and we could easily see a short-term bounce of a few percent. The market could create another fake sense of safety, especially for people who want to believe that every green candle is automatically the bottom. But unless Bitcoin reclaims the key moving averages and the previous market structure, I would treat that bounce as nothing more than a technical reaction inside a bearish setup. A bounce does not automatically mean the bull market is back. It may simply be another opportunity for the market to trap late buyers before continuing lower.

My current BTC levels are simple: 58k–62k USD is the current major support zone, 50k–55k USD is the next reaction area, and 35k–48k USD is my main buy zone. I am not interested in chasing weak bounces in the middle of a breakdown structure. I would rather preserve capital and wait for a real opportunity than buy just because BTC has already dropped.

The bigger issue is that this is not only about Bitcoin. The macro backdrop is also becoming more fragile. The S&P 500 is sitting in a risky area as well, and if equities start correcting, crypto will not exist in some magical separate universe. Bitcoin may be a long-term monetary asset, but in moments of market stress, it often behaves like a risk asset. If the S&P 500 starts losing momentum, the first major downside level I am watching is around 6900. If that level fails, the next important zone is around 6300. A move toward 6900 would already put pressure on risk assets, but a deeper move toward 6300 could create real stress across tech stocks, crypto, altcoins, and Bitcoin.

That is why I do not want to chase BTC here. Yes, it can bounce. Yes, it can look strong for a few days. Yes, people will call every green candle “the bottom”. But from my perspective, the bigger structure remains bearish until proven otherwise. My view is simple: 25% probability for a fast breakdown directly into the 35k–48k buy zone, and 75% probability for a bounce or sideways action first, followed by another move lower.

For me, this setup is not about emotions, hope, or trying to catch every small move. It is about waiting for the right risk/reward. The main BTC buy zone remains 35k–48k USD, and the key S&P 500 risk levels I am watching are 6900 and 6300. Until the chart proves real strength, I remain defensive.

Not financial advice. Just my personal technical view.