Reflecting on Past Calls
I’ve spent years studying Bitcoin cycles, and one thing I’ve learned is that markets move in patterns far more often than people think.
Back in late 2022, when fear was everywhere after the FTX collapse, I was looking for a cycle bottom while most people were calling for even lower prices. Bitcoin eventually bottomed around $15,500, almost exactly where I expected the panic to end. Three years later, the same cycle pushed Bitcoin all the way to roughly $126,000.
That move from $15K to $126K reinforced something I’ve believed for a long time: Bitcoin doesn’t move in a straight line. It moves through cycles of greed, fear, euphoria, and capitulation. Most investors focus on the daily noise. I focus on where we are in the bigger picture.
I’m not claiming to predict every candle. Nobody can. But understanding liquidity, sentiment, market structure, and investor psychology has helped me identify major turning points before they became obvious to everyone else.
And right now, I believe we’re approaching another one.
Where We Are in the Cycle
Despite what many people are saying, I don’t think the four-year cycle is dead.
Bitcoin lost its one-year moving average after peaking around $126,000, which has historically been one of the clearest signs that a bear market is underway. Similar breaks have happened in previous cycles, and they usually mark the beginning of a long reset rather than the end of one.
What’s interesting is that several cycle models still suggest the final bottom has not formed yet. Some analysts expect the next major bull phase to begin in late 2026, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the lowest price is already in.
On-chain data tells a similar story
Metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, which helps identify when Bitcoin becomes deeply undervalued, have not yet reached the levels seen at previous cycle bottoms. Momentum indicators such as the monthly RSI are also approaching oversold territory but haven’t fully entered the zone that typically marks maximum pain.
To me, that suggests one thing:
The market may be close to a bottom, but it probably hasn’t experienced true capitulation yet.
Relief Rally Before Capitulation?
My roadmap remains relatively simple:
$59K → $61K → $65K → $55K → $47K → $200K
So far, the first part of that roadmap has played out as expected.
Bitcoin bounced from the low-$59K region and is now pushing into the mid-$60Ks. That’s exactly what I would expect during the later stages of a bear market. Relief rallies are normal. In fact, they’re designed to convince people the worst is over.
Technically, the $64K-$65K area is an important zone. Multiple analysts have highlighted it as a major support and reaction level. As long as buyers defend that area, Bitcoin can continue grinding higher in the short term.
But I don’t think a relief rally automatically means a new bull market has started.
The bigger question is what happens after the bounce.
If Bitcoin loses the $60K region again, the next meaningful support sits much lower. That’s where the $55K and eventually $47K levels come into play.
A move into that area would likely be accompanied by liquidations, forced selling, extreme fear, and the kind of headlines that make people swear they’re done with crypto forever.
Ironically, that’s usually where the best opportunities appear.