It’s possible. If we follow previous cycle patterns, we still have room for more time and pain before a proper cycle low (typically 12–18 months after the bull market peak).

However, with ETFs, corporate treasuries, and more institutional involvement, this cycle could be compressed or less severe than 2018 or 2022.

Right now, the market is in a “prove it” phase. $60K has been defended multiple times, but until we see strong accumulation and higher lows with conviction, the risk of another leg down remains real.

The good news? These high “underwater” periods are usually when the strongest hands accumulate and weak hands get flushed. The real bottom is often formed in this environment.

We’re closer than most think, but probably not there yet.

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