Anthropic’s newest AI model, Claude Fable 5, predicts Spain will beat France in the 2026 World Cup final on July 19, giving its own pick an 18% chance of success. According to BeInCrypto, the model cites the expanded 48-team format, heat, altitude and travel across the US, Canada and Mexico, arguing squad depth and possession-heavy systems matter more over eight wins.

Fable 5’s probability table puts Spain at 18%, France 14%, Argentina 11%, England 10%, Brazil 8% and Portugal 7%. Goldman Sachs’ model led by Jan Hatzius ranks Spain at 26% vs France 19%, while Polymarket and Kalshi price Spain around 17% with France close behind.