Japan has shaken markets four times since 2024.

Tomorrow could be number five.

On June 16, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates from 0.75% to 1%. If it happens, Japan’s benchmark rate hits 1% for the first time since 1995.

That matters because Japan’s cheap money helped fuel one of the biggest carry trades in history.

Every BOJ move has already left a mark.

March 2024: first hike in 17 years.

July 2024: yen surged, Nasdaq sank, Nikkei had its worst day since 1987.

January 2025: BOJ hike, DeepSeek shock, and tariff fears helped push the S&P into a 21% bear market.

December 2025: another hike came as oil and war fears rose.

Now markets are already nervous before the decision even lands.

Nasdaq just had a brutal drop. Bitcoin fell under $60,000. Shorts are building fast. The S&P is already off its high.

And this time, the Fed may not be there to save the market.

BOJ tomorrow. Fed the next day.

The carry trade is under pressure again.

The last four Japan shocks became buying opportunities.

But this one feels different.