Finished the Bedrock task a bit ago and one number kept nagging at me. With $BR at $0.1037 and the June 20 unlock four days out — 40.63M tokens, $4.21M in scheduled supply — I pulled the FDV. $103.7M. Market cap is $26M. That's a 4x gap. Three-quarters of the supply hasn't hit open market yet.

That gap is basically the whole economic bet at #Bedrock . @Bedrock built a loop: protocol fees from BTC and ETH restaking fund $BR buybacks, but only because veBR holders vote to direct them there. The people who already locked vote to approve the buybacks that lift the value of their own position. It's circular in the way Curve figured out first — but here it runs on Bitcoin, which is a different weight class entirely.

The thing I kept sitting with: PoSL launched at up to 400% staking APY back in March 2025. By now that's settled around 8.65% APR on the aggregators. Normalizing emissions post-launch is expected. But the loop only holds if the remaining 75% of supply that's still unvested gets absorbed by lock-up demand — demand that has to come from somewhere other than the same emissions it's trying to absorb.

Hmm. The structural logic is there. Whether the math actually holds when the rest of that 750M starts moving… still an open test