$BTC
Yeah I’ve seen that 2021 fractal comparison going around too 👀
*Where BTC is right now*: Trading around $64,160 as of today June 21, 2026. It’s been consolidating $61K–$65K, with $60K as key support. Break below $59K and downside risks increase. f72270fd
*The 2021 structure claim*: Traders are pointing out BTC stalled near record levels after sharp rallies both in late 2021 and now, forming sideways ranges that look like “trend exhaustion”. Peter Brandt flagged the same visual echo - 2021 top vs current $105K–$110K range. 8786
*4-year cycle debate*:
- *Cycle still in play camp*: Glassnode says price action “echoes prior patterns” and still tracks the halving cycle. Scaramucci expects a rally late Q4 2026 into early 2027, calling this cycle shallower with only ∼50% pullbacks vs 60-70% before.
- *Cycle breaking camp*: K33 Research says the 4-year cycle is “dead” - institutional adoption, ETFs, and macro policy shifted the regime. CZ and others argue ETFs + Wall Street involvement weaken the halving pattern. 035c3be05ad88a21
*About the $32K September call*: In 2022 the bear bottom was $15,476 in Nov 2022, a -77% drop from the $67,589 peak. From the Oct 2025 ATH of $126,181, a 75% drawdown would land ∼$31.5K. So $32K fits the historical 70-85% drawdown range. Analysts also note $25K–$30K as a structural level if we get 2022-style symmetry. 5ad858f78e971871
But Bitcoin’s drawdowns have been “compressing” this cycle. Less forced selling, lower leverage, stronger long-term holder supply. So some argue the 80% crashes are behind us. 8e97
Nobody bats 1.000 calling tops/bottoms, even the best analysts. $43K by August and $32K by September are valid scenarios if we follow 2021 + 2022 fractals. The other scenario: we hold $60K and run back toward $70K if we break $65K. 64d770fd
You trading this move or just watching the levels? What’s your take on the cycle - dead or delayed?