Lately, I’ve seen growing concern that the market may be approaching a downtrend, especially as data shows that around $10.9 billion worth of altcoins has been moved onto exchanges within the past month — the highest level since May 2021.
Typically, large inflows of altcoins to exchanges are associated with selling pressure, and historically, periods like this often precede a weaker phase in the market.
That said, from my personal perspective, exchange inflows don’t necessarily mean an immediate market breakdown. Part of this movement could be driven by:
capital rotation between altcoins
partial profit-taking after the previous rally
or investors preparing liquidity for upcoming volatility
Rather than expecting a sharp downtrend right away, I lean toward a scenario where the market sees a short-term bounce or a brief sideway-to-up move, particularly toward late January and early February, while sentiment hasn’t fully turned bearish and speculative capital hasn’t completely exited.
If a downtrend does arrive, I believe it will take time to develop, requiring both price structure and market psychology to weaken together — not just a single on-chain metric flashing a warning.
At this stage, my focus is on:
tight risk management
avoiding FOMO
and staying prepared for both outcomes: a short-term relief rally or a gradual market downturn
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