🤯 A bet of $400 million was made on Polymarket regarding Russia's w@r against Ukraine, — Forbes.
As of December 24, about 240 pairs totalling more than $270 million are completed for Ukraine. Active — 120 bets worth more than $140 million.
👇 Top 5 finalised bets:
➡️ Trump will end the w@r in 90 days in office - a total of $56.4 million was delivered. The peak of optimism was the day after the US presidential election — the probability was 53%. Then there was the recession, then the rise, and after Russia rejected the truce in the spring, it became obvious that this would not happen.
➡️ The ceasefire deadline is a total of $33 million in three pairs. In the bet that this will happen by June, $7 million is delivered, by July — $17 million, by October — $9 million. All three bets were resolved with a "no" result.
➡️ The terms of the mineral agreement between Ukraine and the United States are $14 million in two pairs. The first bet with a total amount of rates of $7 million — by April, Ukraine will agree to conclude an agreement. The result of the bet is determined "yes". The second bet of $7 million - the mineral agreement will be concluded by May. Also "yes".
➡️ The Trump administration will tighten sanctions against Russia by September 30 — $8 million. The key tightening of sanctions by the United States took place on October 23 against Lukoil and Rosneft. However, the bet was resolved with a "yes" result, because on September 12, the Bureau of Industry and Security of the US Department of Trade added nine Russian companies to the sanctions list [a strict export licensing regime was introduced for them].
➡️ Trump will meet with Putin in the first 100 days of his presidency — $6.8 million. The presidents of the United States and the Russian Federation met in Alaska in August, so the bet ended with a "no" result.
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