SOFTBANK'S $20 BILLION SECRET
In 4 days, the largest margin loan in tech history either funds—or implodes.
On Nov 11th 2025, SoftBank quietly disclosed they've pledged $8.5 BILLION against Arm shares.
$11.5B more available.
33 banks participating.
Nobody's talking about this.
Here's what Wall Street is missing:
Masayoshi Son has bet 54.6% of SoftBank's entire $224B NAV on ONE company.
The same man who turned $20M into $200B with Alibaba.
The same man who lost $70B in 14 months during the dot-com crash.
The same man who called WeWork "a stain on my life."
By Dec 31st 2025, he must transfer $22.5B to OpenAI.
If Arm drops 40%, margin calls begin.
The reflexivity is brutal: If traders smell blood, they sell Arm. Arm drops. Margin calls trigger. Forced liquidation. More selling.
This is how Archegos collapsed, except that was $10B.
This is 2x larger.
Son's thesis: Physical infrastructure becomes the binding constraint on AI.
Control the chips (Arm) + the models (OpenAI) + the power (Stargate $500B) = control civilization.
Either he's right and this becomes the greatest trade in venture history.
Or this becomes the margin call of the millennium.
By March 2026, SoftBank either trades at 2x NAV—or faces emergency asset sales.
There is no middle ground.
The fish that got away was $150B Nvidia. The fish he's chasing is bigger. The net is made of borrowed money.
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