The 4-year cycle isn’t dead, but it’s clearly changing.
The old model
Halving → hype → blow-off top → 80% crash
worked when retail dominated and BTC was pure speculation.
That’s not the market anymore.
Spot BTC ETFs brought in institutions that allocate and hold, not panic trade. Volatility is lower. Drawdowns are shallower.
Macro now matters more than the halving.
Rates, liquidity, and risk appetite are driving price, not a supply shock everyone front-runs.
Instead of a sharp top and brutal bear, 2026 may look like a long expansion with rolling corrections.
Big retail mistake right now
waiting for a “real bear market” while institutions keep buying.
New meta: stop trading old cycles, start positioning for the one we’re in.
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