ALISHBA SOZAR
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🚨 THIS IS SOOO BAD!!!
Silver is moving for a reason, and it’s not speculation.
Price is moving because physical silver is getting harder to source, not because traders got excited.
People stare at the price.
They should be looking at supply.
Here’s what’s actually changing:
China is quietly tightening control over silver exports.
Starting in 2026, exporting silver won’t be as simple as shipping it overseas.
Producers will need government approval, serious scale, and access to large credit facilities.
That immediately cuts out small and mid-sized exporters.
China sits on the majority of global silver production…
When they restrict exports, the global market feels it FAST.
We’ve seen this playbook before with rare earths. Same approach, same outcome.
The market was already short long before this.
Silver hasn’t had a surplus in years and demand has exceeded supply every single year for a long time.
Mining isn’t responding because most silver isn’t mined directly. It’s a byproduct of copper, zinc, and lead.
Higher prices don’t magically create more silver, supply can’t respond fast.
And inventories have been bleeding for years.
Major vaults in the US, Europe, and Asia are sitting near multi-year lows. In some regions, usable inventory only covers a few weeks of demand.
That’s why physical premiums are blowing out in Asia. Buyers aren’t paying up because they’re excited. They’re paying up because they need delivery.
Paper silver and real silver are no longer aligned.
There are hundreds of paper claims for every ounce of actual metal.
As long as nobody asks for delivery, the system holds. The moment demand shifts from paper exposure to physical metal, pricing changes fast.
Markets are already starting to price that risk.
Industrial demand isn’t slowing.
Solar, EVs, electronics, medical equipment. There are no easy substitutes, and usage keeps rising even in slow growth environments.
That’s what you’re seeing now.
On another note, I’ve been studying macro for the last 22+ years, and I called the last two major market tops and bottoms publicly.
Price is moving because physical silver is getting harder to source, not because traders got excited.
People stare at the price.
They should be looking at supply.
Here’s what’s actually changing:
China is quietly tightening control over silver exports.
Starting in 2026, exporting silver won’t be as simple as shipping it overseas.
Producers will need government approval, serious scale, and access to large credit facilities.
That immediately cuts out small and mid-sized exporters.
China sits on the majority of global silver production…
When they restrict exports, the global market feels it FAST.
We’ve seen this playbook before with rare earths. Same approach, same outcome.
The market was already short long before this.
Silver hasn’t had a surplus in years and demand has exceeded supply every single year for a long time.
Mining isn’t responding because most silver isn’t mined directly. It’s a byproduct of copper, zinc, and lead.
Higher prices don’t magically create more silver, supply can’t respond fast.
And inventories have been bleeding for years.
Major vaults in the US, Europe, and Asia are sitting near multi-year lows. In some regions, usable inventory only covers a few weeks of demand.
That’s why physical premiums are blowing out in Asia. Buyers aren’t paying up because they’re excited. They’re paying up because they need delivery.
Paper silver and real silver are no longer aligned.
There are hundreds of paper claims for every ounce of actual metal.
As long as nobody asks for delivery, the system holds. The moment demand shifts from paper exposure to physical metal, pricing changes fast.
Markets are already starting to price that risk.
Industrial demand isn’t slowing.
Solar, EVs, electronics, medical equipment. There are no easy substitutes, and usage keeps rising even in slow growth environments.
That’s what you’re seeing now.
On another note, I’ve been studying macro for the last 22+ years, and I called the last two major market tops and bottoms publicly.
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