🚨 JAPAN'S MONETARY TURNING POINT 🚨
This morning, the Bank of Japan released a significant yet understated announcement.
At precisely 8:50 AM Tokyo time, they issued a brief statement that marks the conclusion of 35 years of extremely lenient monetary policy:
"Japan's actual policy rate is the lowest among leading economies. "
They have raised rates to 0.75% — the highest since 1995.
And they are transparently indicating that this is merely the start.
There are several aspects that many markets are likely misjudging:
• Last week, the 30-year Japanese Government Bond yield reached 3.45% — an unprecedented figure.
This situation is not "standard. " It is significant.
Now observe the chain reaction:
→ $14.2 trillion worth of yen-linked derivatives will need to adjust their pricing
→ Japanese insurance companies have considerable exposure to foreign bonds — over half is not hedged
→ Local banks are facing around ¥3.3 trillion in unrealized losses, almost three times higher than early 2024
→ Delinquencies in U. S. office CMBS have risen above 11%, exceeding the peak during the 2008 crisis
We've already witnessed the initial impact: Norinchukin incurred about $12.6 billion in losses, offloaded $63 billion in foreign bonds, and then shifted into CLOs.
This action did not eliminate risk.
It merely transferred it elsewhere.
At the same time, Germany has now overtaken Japan as the leading global creditor — a shift not seen in over 30 years.
The global dynamic is changing.
Recall August 2024?
• The Nikkei plummeted by 12.4% in just one day
• Volatility soared as the VIX exceeded 65
That wasn't the main event.
That was just a preview.
The real situation may unfold in Q1–Q2 of 2026.
Even the BOJ acknowledges it:
"Policy rates are still far below what would be considered neutral."
In simpler terms, an additional 100–175 basis points of tightening could be forthcoming.
So keep a close watch on:
• The yen
• Interest rate differentials
• Japan's regional banks
A 35-year period of monetary policy is drawing to a close.
The markets are just beginning to account for this shift.
Make sure your positions are strategic.
$BTC
