📊 Bitcoin New Year’s Day Price
🧠 1️⃣ It’s a Cycle Position Indicator
Bitcoin’s Jan 1 price consistently reflects where we are in the 4-year cycle, not strength or weakness by itself.
• Bear / post-crash years open low
→ 2015 ($314), 2019 ($3,794), 2023 ($16,630)
• Late bull / distribution years open high
→ 2018 ($15,321), 2022 ($47,025), 2025 ($93,500)
👉 Jan 1 acts like a cycle thermometer
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📈 2️⃣ Higher Floors Every Cycle
Even after brutal crashes:
• 2015 low > 2011
• 2019 low > 2015
• 2023 low > 2019
• 2026 ($87.5K) still far above prior cycles
👉 This confirms long-term structural growth
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🔄 3️⃣ Momentum Shift Signals
Comparing year to year:
• 2025 → $93.5K
• 2026 → $87.5K (lower open)
Historically, a lower New Year open after a peak year often signals:
• Distribution phase
• Slowing momentum
• Transition toward bear or deep consolidation
Seen before:
• 2018 vs 2017
• 2022 vs 2021
🧠 Final Takeaway
Bitcoin’s New Year’s Day price shows cycle maturity, sentiment carryover, and structural progress — not future guarantees.
The 2026 open below 2025 suggests:
• Late-cycle fatigue
• Volatility ahead
• Historically, better risk-reward appears later, not early
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