🚨BREAKING: CPI DATA EXPECTATIONS 2026🔔$B 🇺🇸 BANK OF AMERICA 🇺🇸 MORGAN STANLEY 🇺🇸 JPMORGAN 🇺🇸 FED RESERVE 🇺🇸 BLUE CHIP
As of January 2026, economists expect U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation to moderate gradually toward the Federal Reserve's target, though it remains slightly elevated due to persistent pressures in services and potential tariff impacts. The general consensus among major financial institutions and professional forecasters is that inflation will hover between 2.4% and 3.0% for much of 2026.
Federal Reserve: Projects inflation to cool to approximately 2.4% in 2026, though this remains above its 2% long-term goal.
Blue Chip Consensus: A December 2025 survey of 50 professional forecasters predicts a 2026 CPI inflation rate of 2.9%.
J.P. Morgan: Expects year-over-year CPI to drift down to 2.8% by the fourth quarter of 2026.
Bank of America: Forecasts Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred gauge) to stay around 3.1% for the first three quarters before dropping to 2.8% in Q4 2026.
Morgan Stanley: Anticipates core PCE will end 2026 at 2.6%.
Tariffs & Fiscal Policy: Economists warn that higher tariff pass-through rates and potential government stimulus (such as tax refunds or "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" provisions) could keep inflation "roaring back" or "sticky" above 3%.
Shelter & Energy: Shelter inflation, a heavy component of CPI, is expected to slow to roughly 3.0% by December 2026. Energy prices are also projected to decline as oil prices potentially fall toward $61.50/barrel by year-end.
Labor Market: A softening labor market and slower wage growth are expected to contribute to disinflationary trends as the year progresses.$PIEVERSE #Fed
