The King has cleared his throat.
With Bitcoin currently trading at $92,925 and Dominance holding firm at 59.24%, the market structure has shifted from "recovery" to "expansion." The data suggests that the aggressive correction from the $126k October highs is officially in the rear view mirror, and we are now building the floor for the next leg up.
Here is the deep dive into Bitcoin’s technical roadmap, price targets, and the hidden signals that define this moment.
The Foundation: A 10% Safety Cushion
Before looking forward, we must acknowledge the solid ground we are standing on. Following the "Phantom Buy Signal" (Major Long) that fired on November 23rd, 2025, we have successfully climbed out of the danger zone.
From the lows of that signal candle ($84,600 range), we are now comfortably up ~10%. This is critical because it means our positions are no longer fighting for survival; they are "in the green" and essentially risk-free. We have entered the Safe Zone, giving us the luxury to ride this next wave with patience while the rest of the market chases the breakout.
RSI & Momentum: The "Launchpad" Reset
The daily RSI is currently sitting at 63.1. For momentum traders, this is the "Goldilocks" reading.
The Bullish Divergence: The "elbow" bottom at $80,600 in late November was marked by a classic bullish divergence—price made a lower low, but RSI made a higher low. That was the hidden signal that the sellers were exhausted.
Current State: We have moved away from the "fear" zone but are nowhere near the 80+ "euphoria" levels where tops are formed. This leaves plenty of fuel in the tank for a push to new highs.
Wyckoff Analysis: The Spring is Complete
The price action since October fits the Wyckoff Re-accumulation model perfectly:
The Spring: The violent dip to $80,600 on November 21st served as the "Spring," trapping late bears and flushing out leveraged longs.
The SOS (Sign of Strength): The current grind back above $92,000 confirms the "Sign of Strength." We are now in Phase D, where price rallies to the top of the trading range (the "Creek") to test supply.
LPS (Last Point of Support): Any dip back toward $88,000 should now be viewed as a "Last Point of Support"—a final boarding call for institutions.
Dominance: The Silent Engine
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is hovering at 59.24%. While alts are starting to wake up, Bitcoin remains the primary engine.
The Playbook: Historically, Dominance tops out after Bitcoin breaks a major psychological level. I expect BTC.D to spike toward 62-63% as price attacks $100,000, sucking liquidity from alts. Only after BTC breaks the six-figure barrier will we see the capital rotate into Ethereum and the broader market (Altseason or as i like to call it altapoloza).
Elliott Wave Structure
The wave count is incredibly clean:
Wave 3 Peak: $126,199 (Oct 2025).
Wave 4 Low: $80,600 (Nov 2025).
Wave 5 (Current): We are in the early stages of a Major Wave 5. Crypto Wave 5s are notorious for extending beyond standard targets. A typical extension points to a move well above previous highs.
Strategic Price Targets & Odds
Using Fibonacci extensions and institutional liquidity zones, here is the roadmap for the coming weeks:
1. Immediate Resistance: $98,020 (High Probability)
The Level: This aligns with the 0.382 Fib retracement and a pre-$100k sell wall.
The Play: Expect a brief struggle here as early profits are taken, but the momentum suggests we will punch through.
2. The "Golden" Target: $108,780 (55% Probability)
The Level: The 0.618 Golden Pocket.
The Logic: This is the mathematical "magnet" for the recovery. Once $100k is flipped into support, algos will programmatically target this level for the next consolidation.
3. The "Long Shot": $154,380 (20% Probability)
The Level: The 1.618 Wave 5 Extension.
The Logic: If FOMO kicks in above $120k and we see a "blow-off top" scenario characteristic of final Wave 5s, this is where the mania could peak. While a lower probability, it remains a valid technical target if the cycle extends.
The Verdict
The confluence of the Wyckoff Spring, the RSI reset, and the 10% safety cushion from our November 23rd signal suggests the path of least resistance is up. The market has done the hard work of consolidating. Now, the job is simple: hold the position, watch for the reaction at $98,000, and let the market come to us.
