Ray Dalio sums up 2025 and where to look in 2026
The founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, shared his take on how markets really behaved in 2025 and what matters next.
Here’s a tight TLDR.
● 2025 was about money, not stocks. Fiat currencies lost value and gold was the real top performer.
● US equities looked strong only in USD terms. Against stronger currencies and gold, they underperformed.
● Currency moves matter more than headline equity returns. Ignoring FX distorts reality.
● US stocks and bonds look expensive with low forward returns at current valuations.
● Bonds and cash lose appeal when money keeps weakening.
● Capital is rotating away from US assets toward non-US markets and gold.
● AI helped margins, but Dalio sees it as late-cycle fuel, not a clean growth reset.
● Debt, politics, geopolitics, and currency debasement remain the main drivers into 2026.
Markets in 2026 will be driven by currencies, debt dynamics, and policy pressure, not equity narratives.
