📊 One indicator I really like to monitor is the STH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio).

SOPR is used to gauge the profits or losses realized by short-term holders (STHs).

• Why track STH SOPR ?

First, because STHs account for the largest share of Bitcoin’s trading volume.

They are the most sensitive and reactive cohort to price movements, and they often act as exit liquidity.

👉 Put simply, every BTC is ultimately sold to an STH.

That’s why analyzing their behavior is particularly interesting.

💡 To identify a real trend, I prefer to look at the 30-day moving average of SOPR.

This helps filter out noise and provides a clearer view of the underlying trend.

Today, SOPR continues to recover and is approaching the neutral level of 1, after a deep drop to 0.982, the lowest ratio seen during this cycle.

💥 STHs are still realizing losses.

It is in moments like these that good opportunities tend to emerge but for a genuine bullish trend to develop, STHs need to move back into profit.

When STHs are in profit, they tend to hold more easily, panic decreases, and when this happens after a capitulation phase, it becomes a very positive signal.

⚠️ What we do not want to see, however, is SOPR being rejected at this neutral level.

That can happen if STHs choose to exit the market at break-even, but when SOPR remains below this level for an extended period, it is typically a bear market configuration.

Another key dynamic to keep an eye on 👀