Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, has drawn criticism after it refused to settle several high-value contracts tied to whether the United States would invade Venezuela, Guardian reports. The decision leaves millions of dollars in wagers unresolved, after the platform determined that recent events did not meet its criteria for an “invasion.”
Traders had committed more than $10.5 million on contracts betting that U.S. forces would carry out an invasion by various deadlines, with most money placed on a January 31, 2026 outcome. Some users wagered tens of thousands of dollars on the question, expecting the result to be settled after a surprise military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
However, Polymarket said on its website that payouts only occur if U.S. military forces undertake an action intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory — a condition it ruled was not fulfilled by the raid that removed Maduro. The clarification caused the market price on the invasion question to plunge as traders saw their chances of winning collapse.
The platform’s stance has drawn outrage from users, with some accusing it of arbitrarily redefining terms and failing to honour bets that appeared to be resolved by real-world events. An anonymous trader who placed about $30,000 on related outcomes briefly saw unrealised gains of more than $436,000 before the resolution breakdown, adding to concerns over fairness and transparency.
Polymarket recently secured regulatory approval in the U.S. and is among a growing number of prediction markets attracting attention from both participants and lawmakers. Critics warn that such platforms raise complex legal and ethical questions, especially when geopolitical developments — rather than sporting or financial results — are at stake.