BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes says the next big Bitcoin surge won’t be driven by on‑chain fundamentals so much as U.S. politics — specifically a Republican victory in 2028 paired with a cheap‑gas backdrop that permits aggressive stimulus. Hayes’s argument, laid out in a recent blog post, hinges on gasoline prices. He claims that when the national average price of gas rises more than 10% in the three months before an election (compared with January levels), control of one or more branches of government often flips. To avoid that outcome in 2028, Hayes says a Trump‑aligned Republican coalition will need to “run the economy hot” while keeping fuel prices from spiking — a combination that, in his view, almost guarantees large scale monetary and fiscal stimulus. Two election cycles are in play: the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential contest. Hayes notes that although Trump is not on the 2026 ballot and can’t run for a third consecutive term in 2028, the political incentives for his allies are tied to electability. To keep wavering voters and elected officials aligned, policymakers will prefer stimulus over restraint — provided inflation‑sensitive items like gasoline don’t undermine the message. Hayes argues that the mechanics are straightforward: lawmakers expand credit and nominal GDP while suppressing oil prices. If oil spikes, Treasury yields could jump, bond volatility would rise, and policymakers would face pressure to tighten — something Hayes thinks Trump and his allies will avoid. He also suggests markets may initially believe U.S. moves to control Venezuelan oil will significantly boost supply, helping keep oil subdued. Key market signals to watch, Hayes says, are the 10‑year Treasury yield and the MOVE Index (a gauge of bond market volatility). When yields approach roughly 5% and volatility surges, leveraged markets tend to unravel and political pressure forces policy reversals — as happened during last year’s tariff scare, he notes. Where Bitcoin fits in is central to Hayes’s thesis. He argues BTC is less directly sensitive to oil price moves than traditional assets, because miners across the market face the same energy price shifts. Instead, Bitcoin’s upside is tied to liquidity expansion and currency debasement: as deficit spending, Treasury issuance, and central bank bond purchases feed each other, dollar supply grows — and Hayes expects Bitcoin (and some altcoins) to rally strongly in response. “Nothing stops this train,” he writes, echoing analyst Lyn Alden. Hayes also disclosed his firm Maelstrom’s positioning for 2026: near‑maximum risk exposure, minimal stablecoin holdings, ongoing BTC accumulation, and planned rotations into privacy‑focused tokens and decentralized finance projects — assets he believes could outperform if credit expansion continues. Bottom line: Hayes sees political incentives in an election cycle favoring stimulus over austerity. For investors, that translates to a bullish macro stance on risk assets and a continued long view on Bitcoin — so long as gasoline prices remain in check. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news