#TRUMP U.S. TAKES CONTROL OF VENEZUELAN OIL, CRUDE PRICES SOFTEN
Oil markets moved lower after news that Nicolás Maduro was captured and the U.S. stepped in to control Venezuelan crude exports. WTI is trading near $56.3, while Brent is holding just above $60, as traders price in the possibility of additional supply entering the market.
From a market perspective, crude is already under pressure. Prices are down more than 20% compared to last year, and expectations of a 2–3 million barrels per day surplus in early 2026 are weighing on sentiment, even with OPEC+ holding back production increases. U.S. inventory data was mixed, with crude draws offset by higher fuel stockpiles.
Technically, WTI is finding support around $55.5, while upside remains capped near $58–60, where longer-term averages sit. Brent shows a similar pattern, with support near $58 and resistance in the low-to-mid $60s. Momentum indicators remain neutral, suggesting a sideways market rather than a strong trend.
The key driver is policy, not demand. The U.S. plans to redirect 30–50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil and invest heavily in rebuilding production infrastructure. While this supports lower prices in the short term, geopolitical risks remain. Pushback from China and Russia, along with the long timeline and high cost of restoring Venezuelan output, could limit how quickly supply actually returns.
For now, oil is reacting to expectations — and those expectations are keeping prices range-bound rather than collapsing.