🚨 BREAKING: SUPREME COURT & TRUMP TARIFFS
Polymarket shows a 76% probability that Trump’s tariffs will be ruled illegal. The Supreme Court decision is expected Friday.
🔹 If tariffs are struck down, two major issues emerge:
1️⃣ Refunds: Collected tariffs may have to be returned to importers → removes cash from the system → worsens government finances.
2️⃣ Deficit Impact: Tariffs were projected to reduce the U.S. deficit by nearly $3 trillion over the next decade. If blocked, that reduction disappears.
⚠️ Note: A ruling against Trump does not permanently ban tariffs. The President can still impose tariffs via other legal tools, but they are slower, more limited, and less efficient than the current setup.
📌 Market Implications:
Short-term uncertainty in stocks and economic forecasts
Removing tariffs could reduce government revenue
May ease inflation pressure
Increases likelihood of Fed rate cuts in the medium term
👀 Watch closely:
⚡ Key takeaway:
A ruling against tariffs hits short-term market sentiment, but could create macro tailwinds longer term.