Jobs Report Just Dropped. Bitcoin Doesn't Care. Here's The Proof.

NFP day. Everyone's watching. BTC moved +0.81%.

But here's what the correlation data reveals:

📊 The Rate Disconnection:

BTC-TNX correlation: -0.006

That's essentially ZERO.

Two days ago it was -0.33. Now it's practically nothing.

Bitcoin has completely decorrelated from Treasury yields - the very thing that jobs data is supposed to move.

🧠 Why Jobs Data Matters (Usually):

Strong jobs → Fed stays hawkish → Rates up → BTC down
Weak jobs → Fed cuts sooner → Rates down → BTC up

That was the playbook. For months.

But when BTC-TNX hits zero, the transmission mechanism breaks. Rate expectations move. Bitcoin shrugs.

📈 What IS Moving Bitcoin:

BTC-SPY: +0.65 (strongest correlation)
BTC-VIX: -0.39 (fear down = BTC up)

Bitcoin is trading as a pure equity proxy right now. It follows stocks, not bonds. Not rates. Not jobs.

🐋 Meanwhile, On-Chain:

Whale volume: 27,711 BTC
Change: +126% in 48 hours
Impact: HIGH

While retail debates NFP numbers, whales moved $2.5B+ in Bitcoin.

They're not waiting for Fed interpretation. They're positioning NOW.

📉 The Bigger Picture:

Regime: RISK_ON
Sentiment: STRONGLY POSITIVE

The macro backdrop is bullish. Whales are accumulating. And Bitcoin has stopped listening to rate signals.

My Read:

Trade the correlation, not the headline.

If BTC-TNX is zero, stop refreshing the jobs number. Watch SPY instead. Watch whale flows.

The market already told you what matters.

Data: 14-day correlation matrix | Jan 9, 2026

#USNonFarmPayrollReport #bitcoin #JobsReports #MacroAnalysis #BTC #DYOR