Polymarket data indicates that BlackRock's Global Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer, Rieder, has a 47% implied probability of succeeding at the Federal Reserve. According to ChainCatcher, this surpasses former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh's 28%, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller's 9%, and White House National Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett's 8%.
The event has seen a total trading volume exceeding $250 million. Rieder's pricing curve accelerated in January, overtaking competitor Kevin Warsh on January 23.