avax

Is $AVAX dumping because of Subnet incentives?

Short answer: No. Everyone’s looking at Multiverse and Retro9000 like they’re printing new tokens, but they aren't. Let’s look under the hood at what’s actually moving the needle. 🧵

First thing: The $290M Multiverse and $40M Retro9000 programs don't add a single new AVAX to the total supply. They are funded entirely by the Foundation’s existing allocation. No "surprise inflation" or extra supply shocks here.

So where is the pressure? It's the pre-set daily linear unlock—100,000 AVAX every single day. That’s caused ~4.17% dilution over the last 6 months. Circulating supply is now at ~524.7M AVAX, roughly 73% of the total.

Price is down ~50% since July ($23.99 to $11.66). But don't blame the supply growth entirely. Most of that hit came from the massive Oct 2025 market liquidation event where everything tanked 40-70%. AVAX just has a high beta and followed the macro bloodbath.

Here’s the "Alpha": Retro9000 is building a burn flywheel. Rewards for devs are literally based on how much AVAX is burned on the C-Chain. Use the app -> burn AVAX -> dev gets paid. It’s a smart way to turn ecosystem activity into a supply sink.

Then there’s the big money staking. To run a subnet, you need 2,000 AVAX per validator. Institutional heavyweights like Galaxy Digital and Aave are already building subnets. This locks up supply for real, high-value usage.

Watch out for March 2026, though. We’ve got an 8.75% supply unlock coming. That’s the real "final boss" for price action in the short term, and it’s way more important than any grant program.