I think the market looks healthier now when BTCD rises.
Lately BTCD has been dropping… yet the whole market keeps bleeding.
That’s not the altseason formula we believed.
The old belief was,
BTC pumps
BTCD drops
Altcoins explode
It worked in past cycles. But the scope has changed.
Right now, when BTCD drops, it doesn’t always mean money is rotating into alts.
Sometimes it means,
$BTC is weak
Altcoins are weaker
Money is leaving crypto entirely.
And where does that money sometimes go??
Gold & Silver
During uncertain macro periods, investors prefer safer stores of value over volatile assets.
In the past cycles,
2021 – BTCD dropped and alts like $SOL, $ADA, $DOGE went crazy. That was true capital rotation inside crypto.
2022 – Market crashed. Money didn’t rotate to alts… it rotated out of crypto.
2023–2024 - Recovery phases
$BTC led first.
BTCD went up with BTC strength.
Only later did some altcoins start outperforming.
Altcoins like $MYX $WKC $COOKIE $CWT $M $INSP
BTC strength came before altcoin rallies.
So a falling BTCD today can mean 3 different things.
1. Rotation into alts which is bullish
2. Money moving into Gold & Silver which are seen as safe haven. Risk off assets.
3. BTC and alts both weakening
Not all BTCD drops are equal.
That’s why I’m watching for this instead.
BTCD rising
BTC showing real strength
That often signals confidence returning through Bitcoin first… then alts follow.
The old pattern isn’t completely dead.
But the market has evolved.
News events, regulation, and macro trends can shift patterns.
No guarantee the same patterns will repeat. Past patterns are now just observed tendencies, not the standard.
$BTC leads, confidence follows.
Altseason comes after not before.
Not every BTCD drop is bullish.
Watch when BTCD rises with $BTC strength that’s when the market starts turning green again.