What’s unfolding right now shouldn’t be possible.
And markets are completely unprepared for what's coming next.
This isn’t just noise.
It’s system stress.
By the time it’s obvious, it’ll already be too late.
Here’s what no one is telling you:
1⃣ The data blackout.
U.S. government shutdown starts on January 31.
The Fed is data-dependent, but a shutdown shuts the data off:
→ CPI
→ Jobs
→ GDP
→ BLS / BEA
No data means no transparency.
Models lose inputs.
Algorithms guess.
Uncertainty spikes, and volatility gets repriced higher.
2⃣ Collateral risk.
Treasuries are the backbone of global funding, yet:
→ The U.S. has already been downgraded
→ Rating agencies are openly warning about political dysfunction
A downgrade during a shutdown means higher repo haircuts overnight.
Higher margins = less liquidity.
That’s how funding stress begins.
3⃣ Liquidity is already thin.
Dealers pull back when uncertainty rises, and we’ve seen this move before.
But this time there’s no safety left.
The RRP is basically drained.
If confidence in Treasuries wobbles, short-term funding can freeze quickly.
Now zoom out, because the market is already screaming.
In ONE WEEK:
→ Japanese 30Y bonds printed a 6-sigma move
→ Silver pumped to 6-sigma in a single session
→ Gold is up ~23% in under a month, approaching 6-sigma territory
Three near-statistical impossibilities, back to back.
That doesn’t happen because of headlines.
It happens when leverage is too concentrated, collateral gets questioned, and forced positioning kicks in.
Historically, that’s when regimes start to crack.
Rates reflect confidence in governments.
Precious metals reflect confidence in currencies.
When both destabilize together, the message is clear.
This isn’t “just a shutdown.”
It’s the combination:
→ Data disappearing
→ Collateral under pressure
→ Liquidity already stretched
→ Extreme internal market stress
That’s how small political events turn into systemic ones.
Ignore it if you want, but don’t pretend you weren’t warned.
I’ve been calling major tops and bottoms for over 10 years, and I’ll do it again in 2026.
Follow and turn notifications NOW or become exit liquidity.
