$BTC $PAXG
I keep hearing the narrative that money will rotate straight from Gold into Crypto. Conceptually it makes sense — but timing is everything.
Gold and Silver aren’t rising randomly. They’re responding to unresolved uncertainty:
• economic stress
• geopolitics
• government shutdown risk
• tight financial conditions
• rising yields
In that environment, Gold rarely tops early. It usually stays bid until uncertainty actually clears.
Crypto works differently.
Historically, crypto thrives when growth improves, confidence returns, and liquidity is clearly expanding. That’s what powered 2016 and 2020. We’re not there yet.
Yes, the Fed paused — but policy has only shifted from restrictive toward neutral. That’s very different from truly accommodative.
So while Gold will have pullbacks, they look more like mean-reversion, not a structural top. And I don’t see meaningful capital rotating into crypto at this stage.
On the charts, Bitcoin and broader crypto still look corrective, not impulsive.
Until liquidity actually improves, crypto rallies should be treated with caution.
The rotation likely comes — just not yet.
