📉 2026: The End of "Crypto Winters"? BloFin Research Insights
The classic four-year Bitcoin cycle has always been the "holy grail" for investors. But according to BloFin Research, the rules of the game changed in 2025, and 2026 is set to look very different from previous bear markets.
2025: The Pattern is Broken
Historically, the year after a halving is always "moon time." However, 2025 broke the trend: for the first time, Bitcoin showed negative annual returns in a post-halving period, despite hitting a new All-Time High (ATH) in Q4. The structure remains, but the trajectory has shifted.
Why 2026 Won’t Be a Typical Bear Market
If you’re waiting for an 80% "crypto winter" crash, you might be disappointed. Here’s why:
Institutional "Diamond Hands": With the launch of spot ETFs, the market is no longer driven solely by retail FOMO. Institutional capital is more structured and long-term.The 4% Rule: Large investors are now allocating around 4% of their portfolios to BTC as a hedge against inflation. They don’t panic-sell; they buy the dips.Structural Support: This institutional flow creates a "floor" for the price, making massive drawdowns less likely.
The 2026 Outlook: Volatility Over Collapse
Instead of a deep crash, BloFin predicts 2026 will be characterized by high volatility and range-bound trading. Global liquidity remains tight, so don't expect a straight line up, but don't fear a total meltdown either.
The Bottom Line: The cycle hasn't disappeared—it has matured. The market is moving away from retail-driven hype towards a more stable, institutional-led era.
What do you think? Are cycles getting "smoother" or is the big crash still coming? 👇
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