$DOT ## **Current Market Status**
* **Price:** Trading around **$1.56** (down significantly from yearly highs).
* **Trend:** The primary trend is **bearish**. DOT is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages (MA), indicating that the path of least resistance is still downward.
* **Sentiment:** Cautious to Bearish. The market is struggling with a lack of liquidity and a general "distribution" phase where sellers are more active than buyers.
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## **Technical Analysis (Short-Term)**
| Level Type | Price Target | Importance |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **Major Resistance** | **$1.58 - $1.64** | DOT needs to close above $1.56/1.58 on a daily timeframe to start a relief rally. |
| **Immediate Support** | **$1.45 - $1.52** | This is the current "accumulation zone." If it holds, a bounce is likely. |
| **Critical Floor** | **$1.40** | If DOT breaks below $1.40, it could drop toward psychological lows ($1.30 or less). |
### **Key Indicators**
* **RSI (Relative Strength Index):** Currently around **30-40**, which is entering "oversold" territory. This suggests that while the trend is down, a short-term "dead cat bounce" or recovery could happen soon.
* **MACD:** Showing negative momentum, confirming that buyers haven't stepped in with enough strength yet.
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## **Upcoming "Supply Shock" (March 2026)**
The most important factor for DOT right now is the **new issuance schedule starting in March 2026**.
* Polkadot is moving toward a **hard cap of 2.1 billion tokens**.
* A **50% reduction in issuance rewards** (similar to a halving) is expected next month.
* **Short-Term Impact:** This could create "anticipatory buying" later in February as traders position themselves for the reduced supply.
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