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🔥 Federal Reserve core figure Waller has just lost "two signal flares," and global markets are responding with turmoil! The market instantly ignited, let's quickly analyze the key ammunition:

💥 First Explosion: The interest rate ceiling has been reached!
Waller explicitly admits: the current interest rate is already 50-100 basis points above the "neutral level." In simple terms: the brakes can be loosened, and the space for rate cuts has opened up! What's even more aggressive is that he directly lowered the threshold for rate cuts— as long as inflation does not rebound, rate cuts can be initiated. This is equivalent to turning the guessing game of "when to cut" into a countdown of "how to cut"!

💥 Second Explosion: Cooling employment + no worries about inflation, the pace of rate cuts is stable!
Waller continues to sound the dove call: U.S. job growth is nearly stagnant, the impact of AI is still unknown, and the risk of inflation accelerating again is extremely low. The core conclusion is explosive: the labor market has supported continued rate cuts, and the Federal Reserve can "take small steps," without needing to make sharp turns! Simply put: the rate cut train is definitely departing, but it won't slam on the gas; instead, it will move steadily forward.

🚨 Urgent Reminder:

· Market expectations have completely reversed: once the big shots speak, the debate of "to cut or not to cut" ends, and "how much to cut and how to cut" becomes the new focus.
· The market has already celebrated in advance: the dollar plummets, gold skyrockets, and Bitcoin surges— liquidity expectations have shifted, and funds are racing to exit crazily!
· High volatility assets are in the spotlight: on the eve of rate cuts, elastic assets will be actively traded. But remember: the path of rate cuts will have twists and turns, and the market will oscillate back and forth, so don't chase highs and sell lows!

The liquidity turning point has already sounded, are you ready to get on board? Pay attention to the market rhythm, and don't fall behind in the volatility!

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#代币化热潮 Liquidity Alarm Sounds! New York Fed Takes Urgent Action, Is a Super Easing Cycle Approaching?

Recently, fluctuations in the U.S. money market have drawn global attention. New York Fed President John Williams convened a closed-door emergency meeting with primary dealers, directly addressing core issues such as the current tightening of liquidity in the repurchase market, the accelerated decline of bank reserves, and the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) repeatedly hitting the 5.50% policy ceiling. This series of signals highly resembles the market characteristics before the 2019 repo crisis and the initiation of quantitative easing (QE) during the pandemic in 2020.

Currently, market liquidity pressure has reached a critical threshold: the balance of the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP), which serves as a “reservoir” of U.S. dollar liquidity, is only 2 trillion, and the buffer space continues to narrow; the U.S. Treasury has ramped up bond issuance alongside year-end bank balance sheet demands, further exacerbating the phenomenon of capital accumulation in the market; bank system reserves have fallen to the lowest level since October 2020, approaching a safety threshold widely recognized in the market. Historical experience shows that after a similar liquidity exhaustion scenario emerged in 2019, the Federal Reserve stabilized the market through trillion-dollar liquidity injections, directly driving significant rebounds in risk assets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies.

It is noteworthy that Williams has clearly stated that the Federal Reserve will soon initiate “technical bond purchases,” and the current monthly balance sheet reduction process of $95 billion will significantly slow down or even reverse. Although the officials define it as a technical adjustment to restore the functionality of the money market, the market generally interprets it as a precursor to large-scale liquidity easing. As the U.S. dollar credit system faces reconstruction, the demand for allocation in non-sovereign assets such as gold and Bitcoin has clearly increased, and risk assets like U.S. stocks will continue to benefit from expectations of liquidity easing.

Will this policy shift driven by a “money shortage” trigger a QE-level super liquidity injection? Global capital is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's subsequent actions, and a new round of asset revaluation may already be on the horizon.

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