加息落地怎么走

#加息落地怎么走

After the interest rate hike, the core focus is whether it is the last rate hike, policy guidance, and economic data. Different assets have clear paths; here are concise response strategies (taking Japan's rate hike of 0.25BP to 0.75% on December 19 and the Federal Reserve in a rate-cutting cycle as examples):

🌹 How major assets will perform (overview)

- 🌐 US Treasuries: short-term fluctuations, medium-term yields tend to decrease, short-term bond elasticity is greater, typically declining over 100BP within a year after the last rate hike.
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- 📈 US Stocks: short-term volatility (growth/tech stocks under pressure), if the economy achieves a soft landing, it may recover within six months, with high elasticity in the Nasdaq.
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- 🪙 Gold: real interest rates falling, a weaker dollar providing support, easily rebounding within 48 hours under dovish signals.
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- 💰 US Dollar: likely under pressure after the end of rate hikes; if other countries hike rates simultaneously, volatility increases.
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- 🇯🇵 Japanese Yen: strengthening in the short term after the rate hike, supported by expectations of capital inflow, with future outlook on the economy and policy guidance.
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- 🇨🇳 A-shares: short-term sentiment impacted, undervalued high-dividend and export-replacement sectors relatively resilient, focus on capital flows and policy support.
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- 🪙 Cryptocurrency: short-term volatility intensifies, high-leverage currencies carry significant risks, medium-term outlook depends on liquidity and regulatory changes.