The benchmark for the global financial market is undoubtedly gold. Recently, gold has surged strongly. Understanding the rise of gold can help us see the opportunities in the crypto market! This is mainly driven by four factors:
1. Policy Expectations: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and its attitude are not as hawkish as expected, and it announced monthly purchases of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds. Although it emphasized that this is not QE, it is still viewed by the market as a liquidity boost.
2. Rate Cut Bets: Market traders are firmly betting on two interest rate cuts in 2026, which continues to lower the holding cost of gold.
3. Dollar and Safe Haven: The weakening of the dollar index, coupled with geopolitical risks, enhances the attractiveness of gold.
4. Structural Buying: Global central banks (such as China) continue to increase their holdings, along with ETF inflows, which have established a solid bottom.
Market View: Wall Street is generally bullish, with Goldman Sachs predicting $4,900 and Bank of America even higher at $6,000. The divergence lies in whether the market movement is driven by short-term policies or stems from the long-term logic of "politicization of the Federal Reserve."
Key Reminder: The short-term rise in gold prices has already factored in many optimistic expectations. The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data to be released this Tuesday may trigger volatility, so one should be cautious of high-level fluctuations.
In general, the rise of gold does not impact the crypto market from a single dimension:
1. Short-term: It manifests as competition for funds and divergent trends due to the different core buyers (central banks vs. institutions/retail) and driving logic.
2. Medium-term: Tokenized gold (RWA) becomes the most certain connecting point, introducing new assets and yield opportunities into the crypto ecosystem.
3. Long-term: Both still share the same narrative in hedging fiat credit risk. If gold's strength continues, it may ultimately enhance the market's overall preference for non-sovereign value storage assets, benefiting crypto assets like Bitcoin.
Long-term bullish on the crypto market, personal preference for stable allocation
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