Will Japan's interest rate hike lead to a collapse? Historical data says NO! Is it time to buy the dip in BTC or position in ETH?
It's crazy! Everyone says that the Fed's interest rate cut will make Bitcoin soar, but what happened? As soon as Powell spoke, the market put on an epic “face-changing show”: a 25 basis point rate cut? Thank you, love it! (BTC instantly surged from $108,000 to $113,000) Then he casually said, “We might only cut once next year,” and Bitcoin was left dumbfounded: What? Is this what you call a rate cut? This is hawkish cat petting, right? (Immediately dropped to $109,000)
But on the other side, the script for ETH and its ecosystem is completely different! BlackRock has officially submitted an application for a spot Ethereum staking ETF, and Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee has boldly set a long-term target price of ETH $62,500.
Three signals have already lit up:
1️⃣ Smart money is on the move: On-chain data shows that whale addresses have been continuously exchanging part of their BTC profits for ETH and potential ecosystem tokens over the past two weeks, with $PENDLE (yield tokenization protocol) benefiting from the staking narrative, seeing a weekly increase of over 35%.
2️⃣ Institutions have ambushed: Under the ETF expectation, the net inflow for the US spot ETH ETF reached $217 million last week, with capital inflow accelerating.
3️⃣ Macroeconomic pressure easing: Although the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, the market generally expects its impact to have already been partially priced in, and the correlation with the Fed's policy path has weakened.
So, is a rate hike really bad news?
Reviewing history: After the Bank of Japan's three interest rate hikes in March, July, and January 2025, BTC has rebounded after a short-term correction (-8% to -10%). The core logic is that the “tide” of global liquidity shift has not fundamentally reversed. The expectation of this rate hike has long been discussed in the market, and the process of BTC correcting from $116,000 to $80,000 has already released a lot of risks. Therefore, if the rate hike leads to market fluctuations, it may be an opportunity for core assets to “pick up people on the way back.”
The market has shifted from “waiting for the wind” to “the wind is blowing.”
The entry of giants like BlackRock means that compliant funding channels are opening up. In the future, ordinary people may be able to buy yield-generating ETH with one click in their stock accounts. Can you imagine that scene?
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