行情推演

Family, today's news is simply a tale of two extremes! On one side, the Fusaka upgrade of ETH ignites on-chain activity, while on the other, whales are frantically selling off, and there's a slight outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs... Market sentiment feels like a roller coaster, but the true players always sniff out opportunities amid the chaos! Here’s my hardcore interpretation, let’s get straight to the point:
⚠️ The current three major pits, stepping into any one could lead to liquidation!​
Whale sell-off hidden danger: On-chain data shows that ancient whales sold 7,000 ETH within a month, and some big players cleared out WBTC before turning to dump ETH! These 'OG players' have a cost base that's shockingly low, selling pressure may continue until the end of the year, and chasing highs in the short term is just handing over your head.

CME's "Fed Watch" data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is rising. Specifically, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 78%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 22%. Looking ahead to November, the probability of the Fed's cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 29.1%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 57.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 13.8%. Judging from the data, the market's expectations for the Fed's rate cut are relatively clear, and a 25 basis point rate cut in September is almost a high probability event. However, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is also rising, indicating that the market's concerns about the future economic outlook are intensifying. Rate cuts are generally seen as a response to economic slowdowns, stimulating economic activity by reducing borrowing costs. If the Fed chooses to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, it means that economic conditions are more severe than expected and require stronger stimulus measures. This will bring long-term benefits to the stock market and the crypto market, as lower interest rates usually boost the performance of risky assets.