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XRP is currently trading near the $2 level, yet many market participants believe this valuation still underestimates its long-term utility—especially as a bridge asset for global banking settlements. One region that could significantly influence XRP’s future is Japan, where Ripple has built deep, long-standing relationships with the financial sector.

Japan hosts one of the largest banking systems in the world, controlling nearly $9.6 trillion in assets, led by megabanks like MUFG, SMFG, and Mizuho, alongside hundreds of regional and cooperative banks. Collectively, Japanese banks account for almost 10% of global banking assets, making the market strategically important for any settlement-focused digital asset.

To explore XRP’s upside under extreme adoption, Google Gemini modeled a scenario where XRP’s market cap grows to 10% of Japanese banks’ asset base. That assumption places XRP’s valuation near $965 billion, implying a hypothetical price around $16 per XRP—an increase of roughly 800% from current levels. Gemini noted this is an aggressive estimate, as settlement assets support liquidity rather than mirror balance sheets.

Importantly, this isn’t purely theoretical. Ripple’s partnerships with SBI Holdings, the Japan Bank Consortium, and real-world XRP-powered remittance services show that institutional groundwork in Japan is already well underway.

📌 Bottom line: While full-scale adoption remains uncertain, Japan represents one of XRP’s strongest real-world growth catalysts.
$XRP #USNonFarmPayrollReport #ETFvsBTC $BTC

XRP News: XRP Falls Below $2 as ETF Inflows Near $1 Billion
AI Summary
XRP slipped below the critical $2 level even as U.S.-listed spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued to attract strong institutional demand, raising questions about how much further the price could fall amid weakening technical structure.
Key Takeaways
Spot XRP ETFs have recorded 20 consecutive days of inflows, totaling nearly $1.2 billion since launch.
XRP price lost the $2 psychological support and key technical levels.
On-chain data points to $1.78, $1.61, and $1.40 as major downside support zones.
Momentum indicators suggest downside pressure remains elevated.
Spot XRP ETFs Attract Nearly $1B in Just Three Weeks
Institutional appetite for XRP-linked investment products remains robust despite recent price weakness.
According to data from SoSoValue, U.S.-based spot XRP ETFs added $20.2 million in net inflows on Friday, extending their streak to 20 straight trading days of positive flows. Cumulative inflows now stand at approximately $990.9 million, with total assets under management exceeding $1.2 billion.
The Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) led the day’s activity with $8.7 million in inflows, bringing its net assets to roughly $175 million. The Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP) and Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) also saw fresh inflows, while products from Grayscale and 21Shares reported flat flows.
By comparison, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $49 million in inflows on the same day, while spot Ether ETFs saw $19.4 million in net outflows, highlighting XRP’s relative strength in institutional allocation.
“U.S. spot XRP ETFs have now recorded 20 straight days of inflows since launch, even as BTC and ETH ETFs continue to struggle,” analyst Bitcoinsensus noted on X, adding that institutional demand for XRP is “heating up fast.”
XRP Price Breaks Below $2 as Technical Structure Weakens
Despite the steady ETF inflows, XRP price action has deteriorated materially.
XRP has fallen more than 11% over the past 10 days, dropping below the $2 level for the second time since late November. The breakdown occurred alongside a loss of key moving-average support, signaling a continuation of the broader downtrend.
At press time, XRP is trading near $1.92, testing a daily order block around $1.93, according to Glassnode data. This zone offers limited structural support, increasing the risk of further downside.
On-Chain Data Highlights Key Downside Levels
Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) provides insight into where significant clusters of XRP were previously accumulated.
Below $1.90, the data shows relatively thin buying interest, suggesting fewer holders may defend the price.
The next meaningful support lies near $1.78, where roughly 1.85 billion XRP were acquired.
A decisive break below $1.78 could expose the $1.61 local low.
Below that, the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $1.40 emerges as a critical long-term support level and potential bear-market floor.
These levels align with previous cycle lows and represent areas where buyers may attempt to reassert control.
Momentum Indicators Point to Continued Risk
Momentum signals reinforce the cautious outlook. XRP’s relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to its lowest level since July 2024, reflecting accelerating downside momentum and weak buyer conviction.
Unless XRP can reclaim the $2 level with strong volume, technical analysts warn that the path of least resistance remains lower.
ETF Demand vs. Market Structure
The divergence between strong ETF inflows and declining spot prices suggests that XRP ETFs are being used more for long-term structural exposure rather than short-term price support.
While institutional accumulation strengthens XRP’s longer-term investment case, near-term price action remains vulnerable as technical damage mounts and broader crypto market sentiment stays cautious.
A sustained recovery would likely require XRP to reclaim $2.00–$2.05 decisively. Failure to do so keeps $1.78, $1.61, and $1.40 firmly in focus for traders and investors.
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Quick summary

Ethereum sits at a crossroads. On the bullish side, institutional product launches and continued protocol upgrades (scaling + fee economics) offer structural demand and utility tailwinds. On the bearish side, large staking withdrawals, weakening DeFi activity, and macro/regulatory uncertainty could pressure price and liquidity. Below I list the recent, concrete pieces of evidence and then explain the scenarios they create.

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Key facts (what’s happened recently)

Big institutional tokenization moves: JPMorgan announced a tokenized money-market fund that will operate on Ethereum and plans to open to outside investors mid-December 2025 — a sign that big finance is building on-chain utility for USD cash-like products. This is immediate, on-chain demand potential for Ethereum-based token ecosystems.

Spot Ether ETFs are live / market infrastructure matured: The U.S. SEC approved spot Ether ETFs (the approval process culminated in 2024, and options trading approvals followed in 2025), meaning simplified institutional and retail access to ETH exposure has become a real and persistent demand channel.

Large staking withdrawals are scheduled/expected: Exchanges and services warned that ~1.5 million ETH could be withdrawn from staking by end of December 2025 — this represents meaningful sell-side flow risk if holders convert withdrawals to cash. That creates potential short-term supply pressure.

Scaling upgrades advancing (proto-danksharding / EIP-4844): Ethereum’s roadmap continues to roll out protocol improvements aimed at lowering L2 data costs and improving throughput (EIP-4844 / proto-danksharding and next steps), which long-term improve utility and reduce fees — a structural bullish factor for adoption.

DeFi usage and TVL weakness recently: Major research and exchange reports show DeFi Total Value Locked and transaction activity slipped in recent months (e.g., TVL pullbacks and network transactions down), signaling weaker immediate on-chain demand. Lower usage correlates with lower fee burn and less speculative flow.

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Bullish case — why ETH could move up

1. Ongoing institutional adoption and simplified access. Spot ETH ETFs and tokenized institutional products (like JPMorgan’s fund) keep creating steady demand from institutions that prefer regulated wrappers over holding the asset directly. Over time, that demand can create a structural bid for ETH, especially when macro conditions are stable.

2. Protocol upgrades improve economics. Proto-danksharding (EIP-4844) and follow-ups reduce Layer-2 rollup costs and increase throughput, making Ethereum cheaper and more attractive for developers and users — more usage → more fees burned → lower net supply growth (or even net deflationary periods during high usage). This is a durable positive for ETH’s fundamental value.

3. ETF and product inflows can outpace sell pressure. In past cycles, ETF vehicles can attract steady inflows that offset conversion/selling from other sources. If macro liquidity conditions or regulatory clarity improve, capital rotating into crypto could push ETH higher.

4. Network effects and L2 growth. Even if base-layer fees are low, L2 ecosystems (Arbitrum, Optimism, zkRollups) expanding means more real economic activity anchored to ETH, supporting long-term demand for ETH as settlement/gas token.

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Bearish case — why ETH could move down

1. Large staking withdrawals = immediate sell pressure. The expectation of ~1.5M ETH withdrawals by month-end is tangible supply risk: if a significant share goes to exchanges and is sold, that can overwhelm buying interest and push prices lower in the short term. Timing and who withdraws (retail vs institutions) matters a lot.

2. Declining on-chain usage and DeFi TVL fall. A recent drop in DeFi TVL and transaction counts reduces fee burn and suggests lower real demand for ETH. Lower utility-driven demand weakens the fundamental case in the medium term and can exacerbate price drops if sentiment turns.

3. Macro and regulatory risk. Broader market risk (slowing global growth, central bank policy swings) can push risk-assets lower; crypto tends to amplify these moves. Also, while ETFs and products increase access, further regulatory restrictions or taxation changes could create intermittent selling or slow flows.

4. Market structure & leverage. If leveraged positions are present, price weakness from the supply shock (withdrawals) can trigger liquidations and cascade lower — a classic amplify-down effect.

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Two realistic scenarios (next 1–3 months)

Bullish scenario (higher probability if ETF/inflows dominate): Staking withdrawals occur but are absorbed by steady ETF and institutional demand + liquidity; L2 usage rebounds as fees drop after proto-danksharding upgrades, leading to price consolidation and gradual appreciation. Key trigger: large inflows into spot ETH products or renewed macro liquidity.

Bearish scenario (higher probability if sell pressure dominates): A chunk of withdrawn ETH lands on exchanges and is sold into thin year-end liquidity; DeFi usage remains weak and macro risk aversion rises → rapid price pullback and increased volatility. Key trigger: sizable sell blocks from institutional stakers or sudden risk-off macro news.

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Practical takeaways for traders & investors

Watch these on-chain and market signals: (1) exchange inflows of ETH, (2) actual daily staking withdrawal amounts posted on-chain, (3) ETF flow reports, and (4) DeFi TVL / active addresses. These lead the price pressure. (Sources cited above.)

Risk management: Because of the withdrawal-driven supply risk, prefer position sizing that survives a short-term sell wave. If trading, tighten stops around clear support levels; if investing long-term, dollar-cost average through volatility.

Event calendar: Protocol upgrade milestones, official ETF flow reports, and major macro prints (Fed jobs/inflation data) will move ETH more than noise headlines.

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Final thought

Ethereum’s medium-term direction will be decided by the balance between real utility adoption and fee economics (positive) versus near-term liquidity/sell flows from staking withdrawals and weak DeFi activity (negative). Recent, concrete developments — JPMorgan’s tokenized fund (Dec 2025), the ongoing presence of spot ETH ETF infrastructure, protocol scaling upgrades, and large expected staking withdrawals — all create a high-stakes tug-of-war where short-term volatility is likel
y but the long-term structural bull case (if adoption continues) remains intact.
$ETH
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