#CPIWatch Here is a simple and updated summary of the most recent CPI in the USA (data from June, released on July 15, 2025):
📈 CPI Inflation – June 2025 (USA)
Annual inflation (headline CPI): 2.7% in June. Up from 2.4% in May.
Monthly inflation in June: an increase of 0.3%, the largest monthly rise since January.
Core inflation (core CPI), excluding food and energy: 2.9% annually and +0.2% for the month.
🔍 Main Factors
Tariff impact: prices of imported goods (such as household appliances) have been affected since the imposition of tariffs in the USA.
Sectors with the highest monthly increases: manufactured goods, food, and housing. Meanwhile, air transportation and automobiles recorded declines.
🎯 Why does this matter?
The inflation rate of 2.7%, above the Fed's 2% target, decreases the chance of interest rate cuts in the short term.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance (“wait and see”) until new evidence about inflation is available in the July and August reports.
Financial markets reacted with a slight increase in stocks and strengthening of the dollar, while short-term bond yields fell.
🗓 Next Publication
The next inflation report (for July) is scheduled for mid-August, following the Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar.
✅ Final Summary (simple)
Indicator Value (June/year)
Total Inflation (CPI) 2.7%
Monthly Inflation +0.3%
Core Inflation 2.9%
Inflation is above the 2% target, driven by tariffs and costs of imported goods.
The Fed is unlikely to reduce interest rates now, awaiting more data.
The next update will be in August, with data from July.
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