Strategy is stacking more Bitcoin again.
Michael Saylor, as usual, dropped that orange dot on X, and the market is interpreting it as a 'bullish signal.' But this time, what I see isn’t confidence; it's a giant stuck in a flywheel, trying to keep it spinning at increasingly higher costs.
1. The Truth Behind the Accumulation
Let’s look at the data:
Strategy currently holds about 650,000 BTC, which is 3.1% of the total BTC supply, with an average acquisition price of around $67,458. Year-to-date, BTC has returned 16.9%.
On the surface, Saylor’s 'diamond hands' strategy has indeed made money. But the question is: how does he maintain this accumulation pace?
The answer is: issuing debt, preferred stock, and perpetual preferred stock.
2. Financing Costs Are Eating Up the Flywheel
Alex Xu from Mint Ventures recently revealed a key piece of data:
The financing rate for Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock (STRC) has skyrocketed to 11.5%, and it’s about to switch from monthly to bi-weekly interest payments.
What does this mean?
The annual burden of preferred stock dividends is estimated to reach $750 million to $800 million.
The company’s traditional software business generates about $100 million in quarterly revenue, which is far from enough to cover the dividends.
This doesn’t even include the interest on convertible bonds.
3. What This Means for BTC?
Strategy is the largest publicly traded holder and net buyer of BTC, and its fate is deeply tied to BTC’s performance.
Good news:
Saylor is holding firm and not selling any coins; currently, the financial situation is far from a meltdown.
With $1.4 billion in reserves, they can last at least 12 months.
Bad news:
Rising financing costs will inevitably slow down the buying pace.
Once the mNAV stays below 1 for too long, the flywheel will officially fail.
As the largest buyer of BTC, a slowdown in their buying pace itself creates marginal selling pressure.
#SaylorStrategy #Strategy增持比特币