usgovernment

A reserve currency is not a throne. It’s a network.
And that network has three layers:
Safe assetsPricing & paymentsDebt financing
Most “USD is dying” arguments look at only one layer usually reserve share and stop there. That’s a lazy shortcut.
When you zoom out across all three layers, the conclusion is clear:
👉 The U.S. dollar is still the backbone of global finance.
Monetary power vs. economic size
A practical way to measure currency dominance is to compare its international role with its share of global GDP and trade.
By that measure, USD power is outsized.
FX reserves (COFER): ~56–58%Global payments (SWIFT): ~47% in 2024FX trading (BIS Apr 2025): USD on 89.2% of all trades
This is far larger than the U.S. share of global output or trade a classic signal that financial market depth and safe-asset supply, not trade flows, drive reserve status.
The story isn’t “the world is dumping USD.” The real story is that USD dominance is shifting form, not disappearing.

Reserves are diversifying not escaping the dollar system
Yes, USD’s reserve share has drifted down slightly:
Q4 2024: 57.8%Q2 2025: 56.3%
But after FX-adjustment, the actual decline in Q2 2025 was only ~0.12 bps statistically trivial.
More importantly, what replaced USD?
Not the euro. Not the yen.
Flows went into:
RMB (modest)AUD, CAD, Nordics, some EM FX
This is portfolio optimization, not dollar rejection. And for central banks, “holding USD” doesn’t mean cash it means U.S. Treasuries.
Foreign investors still hold ~$8.2T in U.S. Treasuries (~33% outstanding).
What changed since 2023 is who holds them:
Private foreign investors now exceed official buyers
That’s a channel shift, not a confidence collapse. There is still no substitute for the U.S. Treasury market as global collateral.

Payments & trade: USD remains the default language
If reserves are the warehouse, payments are the pipelines. And USD still runs the pipes.
Share of exports invoiced in USD (2025):
Americas: 96.3%Asia-Pacific: 74%Rest of world: 79.4%
USD remains the vehicle currency of global trade.
Even as U.S. trade share declines, USD’s payment share rises:
2010: 31.8%2023: 44.0%2024: 47.0%
This perfectly fits the Dominant Currency Paradigm:
A currency doesn’t need trade dominance to rule it needs pricing power and liquidity.
Markets gravitate toward the deepest, most standardized unit. That’s still USD.
The currency of debt: the real lock-in
This is the layer most people ignore. By Q3 2025:
~$14T in USD credit to non-U.S. borrowers55–66% of all international debt issuance in USDOff-balance-sheet USD debt via FX swaps:~$26T (non-banks)~$39T (banks)
This debt is short-term and rollover-sensitive. That’s why during:
2008March 2020
Global USD shortages forced the Fed to open swap lines. No other central bank can do this at scale. This is why global liquidity is still single-polar, even as reserves become multi-polar.

De-dollarization is real but limited
Yes, BRICS talk about alternatives. But the data is unromantic:
RMB reserves: ~2%RMB trade invoicing: <2%Oil trade: still overwhelmingly USD
Meanwhile:
>99% of stablecoins are USD-peggedStablecoin growth increases demand for T-bills, not alternatives
Ironically, crypto rails may extend USD’s reach, not weaken it. Gold is the only clear reserve hedge:
Central banks bought >1,000 tons annually (2022–2024)Still, gold complements USD it doesn’t replace its liquidity role
We are not entering a post-dollar world. We are entering a system of:
Multi-polar reservesSingle-polar liquidity
USD may quietly lose share in storage, but in payments, FX, debt, and crisis liquidity, it remains unmatched.
DXY weakness and gold’s rally reflect policy cycles and confidence waves, not the collapse of dollar dominance.
The real question isn’t whether the dollar survives but how long the world can function without an alternative liquidity engine.
So far, there isn’t one.
#usd #USGovernment #MarketAnalysis $BTC $XAU

The U.S. government is currently in a partial shutdown, but House Speaker Mike Johnson says it may not last long. Today, Johnson said he believes the House has enough votes to pass a spending bill and end the shutdown by Tuesday. He shared this during an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press.

The shutdown began early Saturday morning after Congress failed to approve a spending plan before the deadline. When this happens, parts of the government must close, and many federal workers are sent home or asked to work without pay.

The main disagreement in Congress was over funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). After two U.S. citizens were shot and killed by federal immigration agents in Minnesota, Senate Democrats demanded changes to the spending bill. They pushed to remove long term DHS funding and replace it with a temporary two week extension. The Senate passed this revised version.

Now, the bill must go back to the House for approval. The House is expected to begin working on it Monday, starting with a meeting of the House Rules Committee. Johnson said this process may be challenging because lawmakers must return to Washington quickly.

Johnson also said he does not expect help from Democrats to speed up the vote. Because of this, Republicans will likely have to pass the bill on their own by following the normal voting process.

If the House approves the bill and it is signed, the shutdown will end, and government services can return to normal. Until then, workers and agencies remain in limbo, waiting for Congress to act.

#MarketCorrection #USGovShutdown #USGovernment

The Core Legal & Budgetary Reason
The U.S. Constitution (Article I, Section 9) states: "No money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law."
This means:
1. Congress must pass laws to fund government agencies and operations.
2. The President must sign those laws.
3. If there is no law funding an agency by its deadline (the start of the fiscal year, October 1, or the expiration of a previous funding bill), that agency has no legal authority to spend money. It must shut down most non-essential function
#USGovShutdown #USGovernment

The U.S. government entered a partial shutdown on January 31, 2026, after Congress failed to pass a full budget before the funding deadline. While federal operations are temporarily paused, the shutdown's impact extends beyond traditional finance, subtly influencing global crypto markets.
What Happened
Certain federal departments, including the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), halted non-essential operations due to the lapse in funding. Essential services such as Social Security, Medicare, and USPS continue uninterrupted. The shutdown remains temporary, pending further approval from the House of Representatives.
Crypto Market Implications
Although cryptocurrency operates independently of government control, macroeconomic uncertainty often translates into short-term market volatility. Key points include:
Regulatory Delays: Agencies like the SEC may slow down approvals or announcements, creating temporary uncertainty for institutional investors.
Market Sentiment: Investor caution rises during periods of political or economic instability, which can lead to price swings across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major altcoins.
Liquidity Considerations: Reduced government spending can have a minor impact on liquidity, though most crypto trading platforms remain fully operational.
Key Takeaways for Traders
Exchanges continue normal operations; traders can enter or exit positions without disruption.
Volatility may present short-term trading opportunities, especially in altcoins.
Monitoring macro events alongside crypto charts can help anticipate market reactions and manage risk effectively.
Conclusion
While the partial U.S. government shutdown creates a wave of uncertainty, cryptocurrency markets continue to function and often exhibit resilience in such conditions. For traders and investors, understanding how macroeconomic events intersect with crypto dynamics is crucial for informed decision-making.
#USGovernment #AFx_Crypto