vibes

Two observations, two predictions and reader favorite quotes from 2025

Observation 1: The crypto market's attention span is 3 months
Crypto market performance seems to have a quarterly cadence. 2024: strong Q1, sideways Spring/Summer, strong Q4 (bookended by Sept 18 and Dec 18 Fed meetings). 2025 was similar, but shuffled: weak Q1, powerful rally in Q2 and Q3, heartbreak drawdown in Q4. Three months for a surge (or sag) to run its course feels aligned with our Trend Indicators' performance over the past two years, curbing volatility and helping to navigate the seasons.

Observation 2: Bitcoin's return properties are becoming more equity-like
In 2025, the relationship between bitcoin's price and its volatility continued to more closely resemble equities. Volatility and price moved inversely, and vol remained very low during bitcoin's two ATH events in the Summer. More pronounced "put skew" in options prices suggests that ETF and DAT option behavior is having a greater influence. The era of bitcoin's price-up + vol-up "meltups" may be over.

Bitcoin price (gold) and volatility (grey) – used to move together, now move opposite
Source: CoinDesk Indices

Prediction 1: Bitcoin will remain important, but increasingly distant from other digital assets.
"There's bitcoin, and there's everything else," is a talking point I heard more and more in 2025. Bitcoin's advantages — narrative head start, clean story (scarce, portable, valuable), liquid US markets — will keep it front and center. But the "slow money" building blockchain infrastructure is happening elsewhere: stablecoins, tokenization and DeFi. As we saw throughout 2025, M&A continued (Coinbase/Echo, Ripple/Hidden Road), regulation advanced (SEC generic listing standards), and integration accelerated (JPMorgan accepting BTC/ETH as collateral). Narratives will diverge, and broader indices like CoinDesk 20 will emerge as the relevant asset class reference. We will see if lower correlations follow.

Prediction 2: Investors will demand clearer connection between blockchain growth and token value.
Traders got more to play with in 2025, with a bounty of new ETFs and DATs listed in U.S. markets. The prospect of large-scale and regulated prediction markets and tokenized equities will make markets even richer. However, as investors and advisors look to make more serious long-term allocations to digital assets, they will demand a more cogent investment framework. Why should ETH go up just because there are more stablecoins and tokenized assets?  And so forth.  (The one exception is, of course, bitcoin, whose investment thesis is clear: a scarce asset with store-of-value properties.)

For 2025's final Vibe Check, here are a dozen quotes that folks told me they enjoyed:

"Out with the old bold, in with the bold old. Mass adoption, retirement fund style." (January 5)
On reversing a bishop's New Year's message: retirement funds as the next frontier for crypto adoption. "Imagine if some of those newly-minted 65-year-olds were able to stow some bitcoin (or some CoinDesk 20) in their plan for 10 years. It could only be life-changing in a good way."

"Bitcoin, still in its adolescence... there are things I don't expect or enlist my teenage children to do." (April 13)
On why bitcoin shouldn't be expected to function as a mature safe-haven asset during extreme volatility.

"You can't just say, 'Strategy.' You have to say, 'Strategy; you know, it used to be Microstrategy.' Like Prince, Puff Daddy, Kanye West and Twitter." (May 4)
On the name change confusion and having to suppress the eye-roll reflexes that MSTR triggers.

"Wall Street is a giant 'selling machine.' Once you get that, everything falls into place." (May 18, Consensus)
Anthony Scaramucci's key quote from the panel discussion on whether crypto had reached "asset class" status.

"Saylor's formula appears to be: 1/CFA." (June 1)
On Michael Saylor reprogramming followers away from diversification and volatility management — the inverse of CFA principles.

"This wasn't the usual opening bell tea ceremony." (June 8, Circle IPO)
Describing the NYSE floor celebration for Circle's listing: "It didn't have the vibe of MSTR rapture or youthful DeFi exuberance. It felt mature and financial — adults celebrating."

"Good bananas or bad bananas?" (July 13)
On a quant analyst asking for clarification: "You will occasionally say something is 'bananas.' Sometimes it's very good, sometimes very bad. I don't always know which way to interpret the event." From that day forward, the team made sure to clarify.

"Another long sideways Summer of choppy bitcoin and saggy alts?" (July 13)
Describing the pre-breakout doldrums before the July rally.

"Five days, five European cities. Planes, trains, automobiles and one funicular. Suits, ties and good shoes worn without irony or costumery. Demitasse after demitasse of strong coffee with a chocolate placed beside." (October 5, "The hills are alive")
Opening description of a 20-meeting, 100 investor European roadshow that was fortunately postponed six months when my appendix let go hours before the flight over.

"My YouTube feed showed Moses the Jeweler taking an iced-out AP to the melter, harvesting the gold. If that's not a top, what is?" (October 26)
After gold fell 5.7% from its peak, the largest one-day drop in over 10 years.

"There is some irony that the U.S. government did more to depress crypto prices by being shut than by being open" (November 16)
Reflecting on the government shutdown's market impact.

"Market volatility, while anxiogenic, can also be exhilarating." (November 23)
On a conversation with Hyperion Decimus's Chris Sullivan about derivatives trading psychology during bitcoin's 1/3 drawdown in seven weeks.

Source: Binance News / Bitdegree / #CoinDesk / Coinmarketcap / Cointelegraph / Decrypt

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#Year #End #vibes $BTC $ETH