【February 25 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Spot
#GOLD reached $5200 per ounce, silver surged 4% during the day;
2. Morgan Stanley: Expects Nvidia Q4 performance to be strong, growth driven by the AI boom has not slowed down;
3. Bitcoin
#ahr999 'buying the dip' indicator fell below 0.3, approaching the low point of February 6 again;
4. Bloomberg analysts: Institutions generally reduced their holdings of Bitcoin ETFs in Q4, with advisors and hedge funds being the largest sellers.
In the early morning, the crypto market saw a rapid rebound, with
#BTC rising above $66,000 in a short time, while
#ETH and
#sol also rose simultaneously. Although this surge led to over $100 million in short positions being liquidated, the overall market sentiment remains cautious. Aside from mainstream cryptocurrencies, most altcoins are still in a negative fee state, indicating that the bearish atmosphere has not changed. Technically, Bitcoin's key support and resistance levels are located around $60,000 and $82,000, respectively. The Gamma distribution in the options market suggests that prices may face increased volatility within certain ranges. On-chain data shows an increase in the proportion of long-term holders, indicating that market supply is tightening, but there are no signs of large-scale inflows of new capital.
Institutional investors continued to reduce their holdings of Bitcoin ETFs in the fourth quarter of last year, creating ongoing spot selling pressure, which directly suppressed the price's upward space and is one of the core reasons why the market struggles to form a trend upward. Additionally, the on-chain situation of "supply decreasing but capital not flowing back" indicates that the market has fallen into a "defensive mode" dominated by trapped positions, lacking fresh buying pressure to drive the rebound's sustainability. However, some oversold indicators (such as the Ahr999 index, which has deeply entered the 'buying the dip' zone) also suggest that the market may be accumulating momentum for a technical rebound. Overall, BTC may experience a rebound in the short term due to technical overselling and short squeeze, but until there is an improvement in the macro liquidity situation, the overall pattern still leans towards fluctuation and defense.