cz

Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has softened his stance on Bitcoin’s much-discussed “supercycle” forecast for 2026. After recent market turbulence, CZ now urges patience over prediction, highlighting the fragility of sentiment even in a bullish macro environment.
Why This Shift Happened
Bitcoin dropped below $75,000, wiping out ~$2.5 billion in leveraged positions.
CZ pointed to FUD on social media, which he believes accelerated panic selling.
Broader macro forces including U.S.–Iran tensions, inflation, and Fed policy uncertainty compounded market stress.
What CZ Originally Predicted
Bitcoin could break the traditional 4-year halving cycle, trending higher for several years.
Thesis was based on:
Crypto-friendly U.S. regulation
Institutional capital inflows
Reduced dependence on supply-driven cycles
The Reality Check
Bitcoin failed to hold key support levels around $82,500 and $75,500.
Price dipped below realized value (~$80,700) — most holders underwater → negative sentiment pressure.
Gold and silver also fell sharply, indicating cross-asset risk-off behavior.
Market & On-Chain Insights
Initial liquidations: ~$850 million → escalated to $2.5 billion over the weekend.
~200,000 trader accounts fully liquidated.
Glassnode data:
Smaller holders: net sellers
Large “mega-whales”: quietly accumulating
Key Takeaways for Traders
Supercycle isn’t dead — timing is just more uncertain.
Macro factors now matter as much as adoption and halvings.
Focus on long-term, buy-and-hold strategy rather than reacting to social media FUD.
Market participants should monitor on-chain metrics and liquidations for real-time risk signals.
Why This Post Matters
CZ’s update is a reminder that even top industry insiders adjust predictions in response to market volatility. Traders and investors should balance optimism with caution, keeping both technical and macro factors in mind.
#bitcoin #BTC #CZ #CryptoNews #CryptoMarket

Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, better known as CZ, has softened his stance on one of his boldest recent ideas: that Bitcoin was heading into a multi-year “supercycle” starting in 2026. Speaking during a weekend AMA, CZ admitted that his confidence has faded after recent market turbulence exposed how fragile sentiment still is.
Just weeks earlier, he sounded convinced. Now, after Bitcoin’s sharp slide toward $75,000 and a cascade of liquidations that erased nearly $2.5 billion in leveraged positions, his tone has shifted from certainty to caution.
“A couple of weeks ago, I was very confident about the supercycle,” CZ told listeners. “But now, with all this FUD, I’m not sure.” He pointed in particular to misinformation spreading on Crypto Twitter, which he believes amplified panic and accelerated the selloff.

Why CZ Was Bullish on a Supercycle
CZ’s supercycle thesis first gained attention during an interview on CNBC Squawk Box with Andrew Ross Sorkin. At the time, he argued that Bitcoin might finally break free from its historical boom-and-bust rhythm.
His reasoning centered on politics and policy. A more crypto-friendly regulatory stance in the United States, he said, could unlock sustained institutional capital flows-enough to override the traditional four-year cycle driven by halvings. In that environment, Bitcoin wouldn’t just rally and crash; it would trend higher for years.
“I think this year, given the U.S. being so pro-crypto and other countries following,” CZ said at the time, “we will probably break the four-year cycle.”
A Quick Refresher on Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle
Historically, Bitcoin’s major bull runs have followed its halving events, which occur roughly every 210,000 blocks and cut the mining reward in half. Reduced new supply has repeatedly coincided with explosive price moves.
After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin rose from about $12 to over $1,000.
The 2016 halving preceded the 2017 rally to nearly $20,000.
The 2020 halving came before the 2021 peak near $69,000.
CZ believed the next cycle would be different, driven less by supply mechanics and more by institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.
What Shook His Confidence
The recent crash challenged that optimism. Bitcoin failed to hold key support around $82,500 and quickly sliced through multiple levels. It dropped below its 50-day exponential moving average near $75,500, a technical breakdown that often signals deeper weakness.
More importantly, price fell below Bitcoin’s realized value, estimated around $80,700. That level represents the average on-chain cost basis of all coins in circulation. Trading below it means the majority of holders are underwater, a condition that tends to weigh heavily on sentiment.
This Wasn’t Just a Crypto Problem
The selloff wasn’t isolated to digital assets. Gold fell roughly 9% to around $4,900, while silver plunged more than 26% to near $85. Combined losses across precious metals exceeded $10 trillion, highlighting a broader risk-off move rather than a crypto-only event.
That cross-asset correlation suggested deeper macro stress. According to CZ, three forces converged at once: escalating U.S.–Iran tensions that boosted demand for the dollar, persistent inflation and policy uncertainty, and social-media-driven fear that accelerated liquidation cascades.
Adding fuel to the fire was the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. The announcement triggered a sharp U.S. dollar rally, making dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver more expensive for non-U.S. buyers.
Inside the Liquidation Spiral
The derivatives market revealed just how stretched positioning had become. Initial liquidations totaled about $850 million early Saturday, but the number ballooned to roughly $2.5 billion as forced selling fed on itself. Nearly 200,000 trader accounts were fully liquidated.
With weekend liquidity thinner than usual, automated selling pushed prices lower, triggering even more margin calls. Data from Kaiko shows order-book depth remains more than 30% below October levels, leaving markets unusually sensitive to large trades.
Is the Supercycle Idea Dead?
CZ hasn’t buried the supercycle concept entirely. Instead, he’s stepped back from trying to time it. “We live in a very volatile global environment,” he said, noting that equities, commodities, and crypto are all being pulled by the same macro forces.
A supercycle, in theory, would mean Bitcoin entering a long, relatively uninterrupted bull market-behaving more like a mature store of value once adoption and regulation reach critical mass. CZ still thinks that outcome is possible, just not predictable under current conditions.
What Still Supports the Long-Term Case
Despite the turbulence, several structural positives remain. Corporations continue to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Regulators in major jurisdictions, especially the U.S., have become more constructive. And innovation across blockchain infrastructure and derivatives markets continues regardless of short-term price swings.
At the same time, those positives are now competing with geopolitical risk, tight financial conditions, and a macro backdrop that’s far less forgiving than it appeared when the supercycle thesis was first floated.
CZ’s Advice Now: Patience Over Prediction
CZ’s guidance has shifted accordingly. Instead of bold forecasts, he’s urging a long-term, buy-and-hold mindset and warning against reacting to every headline or rumor on social media.
On-chain data supports that divide in behavior. According to Glassnode, smaller holders have been net sellers for weeks as prices slid from the $126,000 peak, while large “mega-whales” quietly accumulated, pushing their holdings back to late-2024 levels.
That pattern often appears near major inflection points, though it doesn’t guarantee an immediate rebound.
The Takeaway
CZ’s retreat from his supercycle call is less about abandoning Bitcoin’s long-term potential and more about acknowledging reality. Macro forces, geopolitics, and liquidity now matter as much as halvings and adoption narratives.
For now, even seasoned insiders are choosing humility over bold predictions. The fundamentals may still be building-but timing, as CZ now admits, is a far tougher game.
#Binance #wendy #CZ $BTC $ETH $BNB

Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, better known as CZ, has softened his stance on one of his boldest recent ideas: that Bitcoin was heading into a multi-year “supercycle” starting in 2026. Speaking during a weekend AMA, CZ admitted that his confidence has faded after recent market turbulence exposed how fragile sentiment still is.
Just weeks earlier, he sounded convinced. Now, after Bitcoin’s sharp slide toward $75,000 and a cascade of liquidations that erased nearly $2.5 billion in leveraged positions, his tone has shifted from certainty to caution.
“A couple of weeks ago, I was very confident about the supercycle,” CZ told listeners. “But now, with all this FUD, I’m not sure.” He pointed in particular to misinformation spreading on Crypto Twitter, which he believes amplified panic and accelerated the selloff.

Why CZ Was Bullish on a Supercycle
CZ’s supercycle thesis first gained attention during an interview on CNBC Squawk Box with Andrew Ross Sorkin. At the time, he argued that Bitcoin might finally break free from its historical boom-and-bust rhythm.
His reasoning centered on politics and policy. A more crypto-friendly regulatory stance in the United States, he said, could unlock sustained institutional capital flows-enough to override the traditional four-year cycle driven by halvings. In that environment, Bitcoin wouldn’t just rally and crash; it would trend higher for years.
“I think this year, given the U.S. being so pro-crypto and other countries following,” CZ said at the time, “we will probably break the four-year cycle.”
A Quick Refresher on Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle
Historically, Bitcoin’s major bull runs have followed its halving events, which occur roughly every 210,000 blocks and cut the mining reward in half. Reduced new supply has repeatedly coincided with explosive price moves.
After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin rose from about $12 to over $1,000.
The 2016 halving preceded the 2017 rally to nearly $20,000.
The 2020 halving came before the 2021 peak near $69,000.
CZ believed the next cycle would be different, driven less by supply mechanics and more by institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.
What Shook His Confidence
The recent crash challenged that optimism. Bitcoin failed to hold key support around $82,500 and quickly sliced through multiple levels. It dropped below its 50-day exponential moving average near $75,500, a technical breakdown that often signals deeper weakness.
More importantly, price fell below Bitcoin’s realized value, estimated around $80,700. That level represents the average on-chain cost basis of all coins in circulation. Trading below it means the majority of holders are underwater, a condition that tends to weigh heavily on sentiment.
This Wasn’t Just a Crypto Problem
The selloff wasn’t isolated to digital assets. Gold fell roughly 9% to around $4,900, while silver plunged more than 26% to near $85. Combined losses across precious metals exceeded $10 trillion, highlighting a broader risk-off move rather than a crypto-only event.
That cross-asset correlation suggested deeper macro stress. According to CZ, three forces converged at once: escalating U.S.–Iran tensions that boosted demand for the dollar, persistent inflation and policy uncertainty, and social-media-driven fear that accelerated liquidation cascades.
Adding fuel to the fire was the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. The announcement triggered a sharp U.S. dollar rally, making dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver more expensive for non-U.S. buyers.
Inside the Liquidation Spiral
The derivatives market revealed just how stretched positioning had become. Initial liquidations totaled about $850 million early Saturday, but the number ballooned to roughly $2.5 billion as forced selling fed on itself. Nearly 200,000 trader accounts were fully liquidated.
With weekend liquidity thinner than usual, automated selling pushed prices lower, triggering even more margin calls. Data from Kaiko shows order-book depth remains more than 30% below October levels, leaving markets unusually sensitive to large trades.
Is the Supercycle Idea Dead?
CZ hasn’t buried the supercycle concept entirely. Instead, he’s stepped back from trying to time it. “We live in a very volatile global environment,” he said, noting that equities, commodities, and crypto are all being pulled by the same macro forces.
A supercycle, in theory, would mean Bitcoin entering a long, relatively uninterrupted bull market-behaving more like a mature store of value once adoption and regulation reach critical mass. CZ still thinks that outcome is possible, just not predictable under current conditions.
What Still Supports the Long-Term Case
Despite the turbulence, several structural positives remain. Corporations continue to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Regulators in major jurisdictions, especially the U.S., have become more constructive. And innovation across blockchain infrastructure and derivatives markets continues regardless of short-term price swings.
At the same time, those positives are now competing with geopolitical risk, tight financial conditions, and a macro backdrop that’s far less forgiving than it appeared when the supercycle thesis was first floated.
CZ’s Advice Now: Patience Over Prediction
CZ’s guidance has shifted accordingly. Instead of bold forecasts, he’s urging a long-term, buy-and-hold mindset and warning against reacting to every headline or rumor on social media.
On-chain data supports that divide in behavior. According to Glassnode, smaller holders have been net sellers for weeks as prices slid from the $126,000 peak, while large “mega-whales” quietly accumulated, pushing their holdings back to late-2024 levels.
That pattern often appears near major inflection points, though it doesn’t guarantee an immediate rebound.
The Takeaway
CZ’s retreat from his supercycle call is less about abandoning Bitcoin’s long-term potential and more about acknowledging reality. Macro forces, geopolitics, and liquidity now matter as much as halvings and adoption narratives.
For now, even seasoned insiders are choosing humility over bold predictions. The fundamentals may still be building-but timing, as CZ now admits, is a far tougher game.
#Binance #wendy #CZ $BTC $ETH $BNB

Friends, when talking about $GIGGLE , do you only think of "charity Meme coins" and roller coaster candlesticks? Today's fresh and hot news may make you reconsider its underlying logic: CZ just donated the entire $30,000 received from his live stream at Binance Square to Giggle Academy.
This is not just another donation. It sends out two heavyweight signals:
1. Deep recognition from the official ecosystem: CZ personally completed this "creator monetization-donation" closed loop at Binance Square (instead of other platforms), which is the strongest endorsement of the "trading is charity" model. This is equivalent to telling everyone: this way of playing is recognized by the Binance ecosystem as legitimate.