The impact of the U.S. tariff policy on the cryptocurrency market is multidimensional, encompassing both severe fluctuations in short-term market sentiment and the long-term reshaping of economic structures and investor behavior. The following is an analysis incorporating data from various institutions and markets:
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### I. Short-Term Impact: Market Panic and Price Plunge
1. **Significant Drop in Cryptocurrency Prices**
After the Trump administration announced the tariff increase, Bitcoin (BTC) fell from $88,500 to $82,169, Ethereum (ETH) dropped below $1,800, and mainstream tokens like SOL fell over 5%. On April 7, BTC even briefly fell below $75,000, nearly erasing the gains since Trump’s election victory, with a total market cap dropping to $2.47 trillion. The market fear and greed index plummeted from 44 to 25, entering an 'extreme fear' state.
2. **Increased Clearing in Derivatives Market**
In the past 12 hours, the entire network experienced liquidations totaling $396 million, with BTC and ETH accounting for $151 million and $75.25 million, respectively. Some investors were forced to liquidate their leveraged contracts, further amplifying market volatility.
3. **Safe-Haven Funds Flowing to Gold and Traditional Assets**
Gold prices rose 20% in three months, surpassing $3,190 per ounce, while the correlation of the crypto market with U.S. stocks (such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq) has strengthened, indicating that investors prefer traditional safe-haven assets.
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### II. Long-Term Impact: Differentiation and Structural Adjustment
1. **Bitcoin's 'Safe-Haven Hedge' Attribute May Strengthen**
Although Bitcoin is viewed as a risk asset and has fallen in sync with U.S. stocks in the short term, in the long run, expectations of dollar depreciation, inflation pressures, and de-dollarization trends triggered by tariffs may drive Bitcoin to become a hedging tool. For example, if a trade war weakens the dollar's credibility, the fixed total supply characteristic of Bitcoin may attract safe-haven funds.
2. **High Binding of Altcoins and Tech Stocks**
Altcoins like Ethereum still maintain a high correlation with the Nasdaq index, being more affected by fluctuations in the tech industry. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is gradually showing potential to be independent of traditional markets, leading to a possible polarization.
3. **Pressure on Mining Companies and the Supply Chain**
Tariffs may lead to increased costs for mining machine manufacturers (like Bitmain), prompting them to shift production lines to low-tariff regions such as Southeast Asia. Restrictions on imports of key components for mining machines (like chips) may affect the global distribution of computing power.
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### III. Policy and Market Expectations Game
1. **Divergence in Institutional Views**
- **Pessimists**: The crypto market's reaction to tariffs is lagging, and after the U.S. stock market opens, it may face greater adjustments. Bitcoin needs to hold the key support level at $76,500 to 'escape danger'.
- **Optimists**: Institutions like Grayscale believe the negative impact has been partially 'priced in', and in the long run, tariffs may weaken dollar hegemony, creating space for crypto assets.
2. **Adjustment of Investor Behavior**
Some investors choose to hold stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC) waiting for entry opportunities, or hedge risks through put options. For instance, the open interest of BTC put options with a strike price of $70,000 has significantly increased.
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### IV. Potential Opportunities and Risks
1. **Potential Benefits of Liquidity Easing**
If the United States implements monetary easing policies to fill its fiscal deficit, it may push the crypto market to rise as it did in 2020 (when the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet by $3 trillion, with BTC increasing over 300%).
2. **Geopolitics and De-Dollarization**
Cases of countries like Russia and Iran using cryptocurrency to evade sanctions are increasing, and the tariff war may accelerate the global reduction of reliance on the dollar, indirectly enhancing the strategic value of crypto assets.
3. **Regulatory Uncertainty**
The United States may strengthen scrutiny of the cryptocurrency industry through tariff policies (such as anti-money laundering and tax compliance), leading exchanges and stablecoin issuers to face higher compliance costs.
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### Summary
The short-term impact of U.S. tariffs on the crypto space is significant, but the long-term effects depend on the sustainability of policies, global economic resilience, and whether the safe-haven attributes of crypto assets can be re-priced by the market. Investors need to pay attention to key support levels (such as BTC at $76,500), the dollar's trend, and the migration dynamics of mining companies, while also being wary of the volatility risks triggered by policy reversals.