Recently, US stocks and Bitcoin have risen, driven by stable macro sentiment and impressive earnings reports. However, the market lacks liquidity, and before the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it remains influenced by economic data and policy expectations. Is the rise of Bitcoin a rebound or a reversal? A true reversal requires sustained inflows of capital, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surging, altcoins rising alongside Ethereum, and MEME coins active on the SOL chain.

Currently, if the unemployment rate is above 4.2% tonight, or if interest rate cuts accelerate, Bitcoin could stabilize at $97,500 or even challenge $100,000; if the unemployment rate is below 4.3%, meeting expectations, rate cuts may not happen too quickly, but market sentiment might still be okay. Compared to previous market conditions, when Bitcoin was at $97,000, Ethereum should be above $2,700, and SOL should be above $190. However, even if Bitcoin rises to $100,000, it is uncertain whether Ethereum and SOL can reach their corresponding price levels. Therefore, the current situation resembles a rebound rather than a reversal, mainly driven by short-term news and sentiment, and if sentiment turns negative, a decline could occur.

Next, the Ethereum upgrade on May 7 and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be the market barometers for May. If the market wants to rally, it needs to gain momentum before the favorable news materializes. Major websites predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 0.25% on May 7, but most large bettors on the Polymarket platform are betting against a rate cut. If there is no rate cut, the market may rebound after the panic sentiment is released; if there is a rate cut, the market may rally in advance, adjust after the news lands, rise for a few days into a consolidation or even a correction, and then find a new direction. Tonight's non-farm payroll data is also a key turning point, and the sentiment it triggers will determine the current price.