📈 Inflation Alert: Double Shock Looms Over U.S. Economy 🔥

Bloomberg Economics sounds the alarm: a summer with 4% CPI is now on the table. Two key threats are converging:

🚨 1. Time Bomb of Tariffs

• Imminent end of Trump’s tariff suspensions

• Risk of return of taxes on over $300 billion

• Possible rekindled trade tensions

🛢️ 2. Oil Shock in the Middle East

• Increasing conflicts → Oil at $130+ (vs ~85$)

• +$100 billion of oil = +0.4% on the price index

• Summer season: amplified effect on gasoline

🎯 Expected:

• Inflation towards 4% by August (vs 3.3%)

• 📆 Fed forced to delay rate cuts

📊 Markets already in motion:

• Energy stocks rising

• Bond yields climbing

• Markets no longer anticipate more than 1.25 rate cut in 2024

🔍 To watch: The dilemma for policymakers:

🇺🇸 Manage inflation, avoid recession… in an election year.

#Inflation #OilPriceSurge #Tariffs #FederalReserveSecurity #MarketOutlook